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Average Conditions but Low Soil Moisture in North, East Germany

29 June 2012

GERMANY - Winter crops entered water demanding stages that can be satisfied in most regions due to the rain received with the exception north and east Germany. The drought is most accentuated in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Forecasts are generally slightly revised up but winter cereals remain below the 5 years average with the exception of rye.

After temperature accumulation slowed down mid May warmer weather returned for the last dekad of May in Germany leading to a surplus of temperature accumulation and favourable growth conditions. Temperatures even climbed above 30 degrees in Eastern Germany for 1 – 2 days bringing summer conditions.

Some precipitation was recorded but the previously dry regions Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Schleswig Holstein did not receive any. With the beginning of June average temperatures dropped significantly with the north (colder) south (warmer) gradient. Temperature accumulation stayed below the long term average (around – 20 per cent in northern and central Germany) slowing down crop growth with maximum temperatures being on average 4 – 6 degrees colder than the LTA.

Also rainfall started to cross the country with a clear surplus in the first dekad of June for Nordrhein-Westfalen, Rheinland Pfalz and Saarland as well as southern regions in Hessen, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bayern with absolute values as high as 70 mm in 10 days in the region of Tübingen.

This period did coincide with the flowering of winter wheat and was also coupled with low sunshine duration possibly reducing ear fertility. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and northern Brandenburg remained dry again. Here the period since 1st of March until 10 of June is the driest in our databases.

The weather after 10 of June remained variable and temperatures climbed considerably in the south of country (above 30 degrees). Rainy days are recorded throughout the whole country, except, again for Mecklenburg Vorpommern.

Winter wheat passed the flowering stage and is now at grain filling whereas in the most northern parts of the country the model simulates flowering. Growth conditions have been satisfactory in the south and hampered by a strong water deficit in the north-east of the country. This is only partially reflected with a below average simulated biomass accumulation. The forecast for winter wheat has been slightly increased.

Rape seed is mostly at ripening stage being slightly advanced throughout the country. High amounts of rainfall during flowering were recorded in Rheinland Pfalz. In general high values of water limited storage organs are simulated with the exception of Unterfranken, Mittelfranken and Hessen where values are closer to the average level of simulation. Yield forecast is revised up and the forecast is now based on the simulated storage organ weight.

Grain maize is at the vegetative state, the low temperatures slowed down the growth and only little biomass accumulation can be observed so far, not deviating from the long term average. So far the full yield potential is kept.

Rainfall: Rheinland-Pfalz (DE)

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