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Good Yield Forecast for Winter Crops in Italy, Slovenia

03 July 2012

ITALY & SLOVENIA - Yields are revised upwards for winter crops. The conditions for summer crops are also positive due to the water stored and temperatures close to the seasonal values.

During the observation period, from 20 May until June 15th, the accumulation of active temperatures was recorded above the average.

Maximum daily temperatures did not exceed 30°C in most parts of northern Italy and Slovenia; temperatures close to 30°C were recorded in southern Italy, only for a few days.

The rainfall accumulated during the observation period has been substantially lower (-80 per cent) than the long-term average in the East part of Italy (Marche, Abruzzo, Puglia) and below the LTA in Sicily and in Emilia Romagna (- 30 per cent); but thanks to the previous good water supply, winter crop yield will not be reduced, except in some area of Puglia where significant water stress is observed.

However, in central and eastern Italy, some rain is needed to maintain the high yield potential for spring and summer crops too. In northern Italy, Toscana and Slovenia a good water supply allowed a good condition of winter crop grain filling and development of spring crops. Soft wheat and barley are at the end of the grain filling period, in northern and central regions, and the crop growth model shows storage organ content above the average.

In southern regions, durum wheat harvest has already started and according to our models the satisfactory yield expectation foreseen has been confirmed and even good quality can be expected. The forecast is slightly increased, for winter cereals, as the model now uses storage organ content as a predictor. Rapeseed has reached maturity and is being harvested.

The stormy weather at flowering could affect good yield expectations, mainly in Piemonte. Grain maize development has been around the average or with a slight delay in north-east Italy. Yield forecasts are close to the average of the last years, but weather conditions during the next month will be determinant.

Sugar beet is now in the yield formation growth stage in almost all regions of production, heralding a good start to biomass accumulation and root enlargement in northern regions, but high temperatures and the lack of precipitation forecasted, for next days, could induce the risk of water stress especially in Marche, Emilia Romagna and Veneto.

Further Reading

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TheCropSite News Desk

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