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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Firmer Overnight

19 July 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - It’s a quieter Friday in the world market place, as there were no major economic reports or fresh geopolitical developments overnight.

Many traders and investors in Europe and North America are gearing up for their summer holidays,
which could made for generally quieter, summer doldrums-type trading conditions until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.

The market place is still digesting this week’s testimony be Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before the U.S. Congress. Most believe the Fed chief came down on the dovish side of U.S. monetary policy, which is not surprising.

However, Bernanke really said nothing radically different than what he’s already said in his recent speeches. It can be argued the market place took this week’s Bernanke comments as indicating the Fed will keep its quantitative easing in place at least a little longer that what it thought just a few weeks ago. There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.

The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.060 and then at Thursday’s high of 83.160. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.630 and then at this week’s low of 82.525. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh 14- month high of $108.65 overnight. Bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum.

In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $109.00 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.73 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Grains

Markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt remain the dominant market factor in the grains. The latest weather forecasts are calling for better chances for rainfall and cooler temps over the weekend and early next week.

However, recent Corn Belt weather forecasts have seen a trend of actual rainfall amounts not meeting forecast expectations. 

If this trend continues, which is more likely than not, then a significant weather market rally is likely. Trading in the grain futures Sunday evening and next Monday could be the most volatile of the year, given the unpredictability of what the Corn Belt weather patterns will suggest come early next week. Corn is at its critical pollination period in much of the Corn Belt.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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