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Jim Wyckoff's Monday Closing Grains: Soy Higher Off Prospects for a Hot August

Jim Wyckoff's Monday Closing Grains: Soy Higher Off Prospects for a Hot August

22 July 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - December corn futures closed down 2 3/4 cents at $4.98 Monday. Prices closed near mid-range.

Weather forecasts in the U.S. Corn Belt are seeing some better rainfall chances and lower temperatures put into near-term forecasts and that is near-term bearish. However, weekend precip totals for the region were disappointing. Corn Belt weather forecasts can flip-flop in a hurry.

Corn bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $5.12. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $4.90. First resistance for December corn is seen at Monday’s high of $5.02 3/4 and then at $5.07. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $4.93 1/4 and then at $4.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

November soybeans closed up 14 1/2 cents at $12.88 1/2 a bushel Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt have turned a bit wetter and cooler, but soybean traders ignored that bearish prospect and focused on the month of August being critical for soybean growth in the Corn Belt. The dry July makes traders worry August could produce the same results. Corn Belt weather forecasts can change on a dime in the summertime.

The soybean bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $13.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $12.50. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $12.65 1/4 and then at $12.59. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $12.94 1/2 and then at the July high of $12.97. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December soybean meal closed up $7.40 at $389.90 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a fresh five-week high close. The meal bulls have the near-term technical advantage and are once again proving resilient.

The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the July high of $391.30. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $370.70. First resistance comes in at $391.30 and then at $395.00. First support is seen at $385.00 and then at $382.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December bean oil closed down 1 point at 45.31 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bean oil bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 46.53 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 44.60 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 45.74 cents and then at 46.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 45.10 cents and then at 45.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 4 cents at $6.71 1/4 Monday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh three-week low. The wheat market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $6.94 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $6.66 1/4. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $6.78 1/2 and then at $6.86 1/2. First support lies at $6.66 1/4 and then at $6.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

December HRW wheat closed down 2 3/4 cents at $7.14 3/4 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low. The HRW wheat market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $7.37 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $7.22 1/4 and then at last week’s high of $7.27 1/2. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $7.11 and then at the July low of $7.05 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

December oats closed up 1 1/4 cents at $3.42 1/4 Monday. Prices closed near mid-range. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. A big bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $3.33. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.53 1/4. First support lies at last week’s low of $3.38 1/2 and then at $3.35. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $3.44 and then at last week’s high of $3.48 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Click here for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

Questions? Just email me at [email protected] I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.

~Jim

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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