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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Mixed, Mostly Weaker

23 July 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - It’s another quiet, summertime day in the market place as U.S. trading is set to get under way.

Overnight, Asian stock markets were supported on reports that China’s premier said China’s economic growth needs to be above a 7% annual pace in order to reach China’s goal of doubling the size of its economy this decade.

Last week, China’s second-quarter GDP was reported at a 7.5% annual clip. The premier’s comments suggested China will focus more on economic stimulus.

A key Chinese manufacturing report is due out Wednesday. European stocks were lifted modestly on the China news. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, and the Richmond Fed business survey. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering. Bulls have faded badly recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.

The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 82.50 and then at Monday’s high of 82.740.

Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 82.130 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are lower early today on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $106.50 and then at the overnight high of $107.22.

Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $105.80 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Grains

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. Corn Belt has received spotty rains the past few days, but temperatures have cooled down significantly right during the key pollination stage of corn crop development.

That’s bearish and is limiting buying interest across the grains complex. Some rain chances are also in the forecast for this week, along with non-threatening hot temperatures.

The key “outside markets” are also in a bearish posture Tuesday morning, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and crude oil prices are lower.

Technically, the corn and wheat bears are in full control, while soybean bulls still possess the slight near-term advantage.

TheCropSite News Desk

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