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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Near Steady to Lower Overnight

25 July 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In scanning my price screen this morning I see mostly red numbers (lower prices), which suggests a “risk-off” day in the market place Thursday—even though there were no major developments on the world economic or geopolitical front overnight.

European and North American traders have likely entered the summertime doldrums, in which trading enthusiasm wanes as many traders and investors gear up for their annual family vacations.

In overnight news, the German Ifo business confidence index rose for the third month in a row during July.

The reading was 106.2 in July from 105.9 in June. Still, the European stock markets were mostly weaker due to a batch of disappointing corporate earnings reports just released.

Asian stock markets were also mostly weaker Thursday. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.

The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.500 and then at this week’s high of 82.740.

Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.145 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are lower again early today, on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading.

In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $105.44 and then at $106.00.

Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.42 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Grains

Markets were near steady to lower in overnight trading. The August soybean futures contract was sharply lower.

Corn and wheat futures remain in deep bear markets, while new-crop soybean bulls and bears struggle for near-term control.

The U.S. Corn Belt has received beneficial rains the past few days, and temperatures have cooled down significantly.

That’s bearish. Cash corn and soybean basis levels in the central U.S. have collapsed, which adds to the bearish tone in the futures markets.

The one bright spot in the grain markets at present is decent world demand for U.S. grains. Traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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