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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Mostly Lower

29 July 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - It is a busy week of worldwide economic data points, highlighted by the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that ends Wednesday and the US employment report on Friday.

Most expect the Fed will leave its monetary policy unchanged and continue to lean well to the dovish side at this week’s meeting.

For the U.S. jobs report on Friday morning, the key non-farm payrolls figure is forecast to rise by around 175,000 workers in July. U.S. stock index are set to open modestly lower Monday morning, based upon weaker electronic trading in the stock indexes overnight.

European stock markets rose Monday on some better corporate earnings reports. European traders are awaiting the European Central Bank and Bank of England monthly meetings that occur on Thursday.

Asian stock markets fell Monday amid disappointing corporate earnings reports. The Japanese yen continued to rally against the U.S. dollar. Asian traders and investors are awaiting manufacturing data from China, due out Thursday.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a fresh five-week low overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.

The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.815 and then at 82.000.

Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.610 and then at 81.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded.

In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $105.12 and then at $106.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $103.87 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Grains

Markets were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading. Corn and wheat futures are in strong bear markets, while soybeans bears have also gained power recently.

The U.S. Corn Belt weather has turned benign for the corn and soybean crops, and that’s bearish. There is no threatening heat in the Corn Belt forecast, and there are rainfall chances in the region this week.

The next weather concern for the grain markets could be in September, with the potential for an early frost in the U.S. Corn Belt.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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