TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

News

Morning Report: Markets Firmer Overnight

01 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - September Nymex crude oil was higher overnight and trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.70. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term, writes Ken Seehusen.

Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July’s high crossing at 108.93. If September renews the decline off July’s high, the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.70. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 108.93. First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 103.27.

Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

Currencies

The September Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight leaving Wednesday’s key reversal down and close below the 75% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.70 unconfirmed.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.15 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.82. 

First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.70. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.15.

Grains

December corn was lower overnight hinting that the two-day bounce off Monday ’s low might have come to an end.

This morning’s export sales report along with the latest weather forecast for the Midwest hold the keys to December’s close ahead of the weekend.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June’s high, weekly support crossing at 4.66 3/4 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.95 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.95 1/2.

First support is Monday’s low crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second support is weeklysupport crossing at 4.66 3/4.

December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s short covering rally.

Upside potential appears limited ahead of August’s supply-demand report. However, I would not rule out a possible run up to test July’s high crossing at 7.05 3/4 if we see end user buying materialize along with an up tick in export demand.

The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

If December renews the decline off July’s high, psychological support crossing at 6.50 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6.79 3/4. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 7.05 3/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.58 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.50.

November soybeans were fractionally lower in overnight trading as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 12.04 1/2.

Look for soybean prices to drift sideways to lower into the August crop production report. After the report the market may shift its focus to early-frost concerns for portions of the western soybean belt.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned decline, April’s low crossing at 11.86 1/2 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20- day moving average crossing at 12.52 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.36 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.52 3/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the April-June rally crossing at 12.04 1/2. Second support is April’s low crossing at 11.86 1/2.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



Our Sponsors