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Morning Report: Corn, Wheat Lower Overnight

02 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - September Nymex crude oil was lower in late overnight trading after falling short of testing July’s high crossing at 108.93. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

Closes above July’s high would renew this summer’s rally off April’s low. Closes below Tuesday’s low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a double top with July’s high has been posted.

First resistance is July ’s high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 110.55.

First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 103.27. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

Currencies

The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rebound off the 75% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.70. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.15 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.72. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.16. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.70. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 81.15.

Grains

December corn was lower overnight as it extends this summer’s decline. Non-threatening weather forecast for much of the Midwest along with chances for scattered showers across portions of the region will continue to keep pressure on the market ahead of the August crop production report. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

If December extends the decline off June’s high, weekly support crossing at 4.33 1/2 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.93 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.78. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.93 3/4. First support is weekly support crossing at 4.66 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.33 1/2.

December wheat was fractionally lower overnight. Upside potential appears limited ahead of August’s supply-demand report.

The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July’s high, psychological support crossing at 6.50 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 6.79 3/4. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 7.05 3/4.

First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 6.58 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.50.

November soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this week’s losses.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

If November extends the aforementioned decline, April’s low crossing at 11.86 1/2 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.50 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.27 1/2. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 12.50 1/2. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 11.89. Second support is April’s low crossing at 11.86 1/2.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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