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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Narrowly Mixed Overnight

06 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In overnight news, there was more upbeat economic data coming out of the European Union Tuesday. Germany’s manufactured goods orders increased by 3.8% in June versus May.

However, European stock markets languished in quiet, summertime trading. Asian stock markets were mostly weaker in dull trading as the world market place awaits fresh macro inputs.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its main interest rate by 0.25%, to a record low of 2.5% on Tuesday.

With many Europeans and North Americans on summer holidays and with the “dog days” of summer on the doorstep, trading volumes in many markets may dwindle until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.

The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.015 and then at this week’s high of 82.160. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.710 and then at last week’s low of 81.480. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, if prices back off this week a bearish double-top reversal pattern would form on the daily bar chart.

In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $107.50 and then at $108.00.

Look for sell stops just below technical support at $106.00 and then at this week’s low of $105.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Grains

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Not much new. Weekly crop progress reports late Monday showed pretty decent corn and soybean crops in the U.S. Corn Belt.

The grain market bears are in firm near-term technical command. The U.S. Corn Belt weather remains non-threatening for the corn and soybean crops, which is bearish.

The next major data points for the grain markets are likely to be the monthly USDA supply and demand report, out next week, and the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour in late-August.

It’s my bias that corn prices around the $4.50 level would be a longer-term value-buying opportunity.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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