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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Firmer Overnight

08 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - Chinese economic data released overnight was bullish for most of the market place and especially for the raw commodity sector.

China exports were up a much higher than expected 5.1% year-on-year in July, compared to a 3.1% drop in June.

Chinese imports rose by a much higher than expected 11%, year-on-year. The European Central Bank released a forecast Thursday that shows it expects Euro zone economic
growth to contract by 0.6% in 2013, citing weak consumer demand worldwide.

The ECB forecast Euro zone growth in 2014 at up 0.9%. The ECB report comes out at a time when recent Euro zone economic data has shown generally slight improvement. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the ICSC chain store trends report. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading and hit another fresh six-week low overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.395 and then at 81.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.115 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded this week.

If prices back off the rest of this week then a bearish double-top reversal pattern would form on the daily bar chart.

In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $105.00 and then at $105.50.

Look for sell stops just below technical support at $104.00 and then at $103.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0


Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering in bear markets. The grain market bears remain in solid technical command.

However, it’s now my bias that there is not strong downside price pressure left in the grain markets, after their recent beating.

The next major data points for the grain markets are likely to be the monthly USDA supply and demand report, out next Monday, and the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour in late-August.

TheCropSite News Desk

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