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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Firmer Overnight

15 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In overnight activity, reports said around 525 people have died the past two days in anti-government violence in Egypt.

Government troops have reportedly shot citizens protesting in the streets. This news has helped to support crude oil prices and the safe-haven gold market.

Egypt controls the Suez Canal, through which a good percentage of the world’s oil traffic and other commerce flow. Asian and European stocks were mixed Thursday in uneventful trading amid a lack
of market-moving economic data in those regions.

There is a big batch of U.S. economic data due for release Thursday that could move the markets, highlighted by the consumer price index.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real
earnings, the Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury international capital data, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and the Philadelphia Fed business survey.

Also, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard speaks at a breakfast meeting Thursday morning. Traders and investors will be awaiting reports of his comments. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.745 and then at this week’s high of 81.925.

Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.450 and then at this week’s low of 81.110. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $107.87 and then at the July high of $108.93.

Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $106.92 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Grains

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture for the grains Thursday morning, as the U.S. dollar index is lower and crude oil prices are higher.

Traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s USDA weekly export sales report. Recent export demand for U.S. grains has been good. Dry weather in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt is a bullish input for soybeans and to a lesser degree corn. However, there are scattered rains falling over the western Corn Belt Thursday morning.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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