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Jim Wyckoff's Monday Closing Grains: Higher on Dry Forecast

Jim Wyckoff's Monday Closing Grains: Higher on Dry Forecast

19 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - December corn futures closed up 22 cents at $4.85 1/2 Monday. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh four-week high on heavy short covering and more bargain hunting.

Dry weather in parts of the western Corn Belt are bullish for corn. The bulls have upside momentum and it also strongly hints that a market bottom is in place. The bears at present still have the overall near-term technical advantage in corn, but that could change soon. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above major technical resistance at $5.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $4.45 3/4. First resistance for December corn is seen at $4.90 and then at $4.95. First support is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

November soybeans closed up 44 cents at $13.03 1/4 a bushel Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh two-month high. Dry and hot weather in the U.S. western Corn Belt, and more of the same in the forecast, is bullish for soybeans. Bulls have good upside momentum to suggest prices can continue to trend sideways to higher in the near term. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $13.33 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $12.50. First support is seen at $12.90 and then at $12.85. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $13.05 1/4 and then at $13.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December soybean meal closed up $17.90 at $404.20 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh contract high. The meal bulls quickly gained the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $415.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $390.00. First resistance comes in at Monday’s contract high of $404.90 and then at $407.50. First support is seen at $400.00 and then at $395.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

December bean oil closed up 62 points at 43.78 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high on short covering. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but given the rallies in meal and soybeans, and in crude oil, my bias is that soybean oil has put in a market bottom. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 44.60 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 41.85 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 43.98 cents and then at 44.33 cents. First support is seen at Monday’s low of 43.36 cents and then at 43.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 10 cents at $6.53 1/2 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short covering in a bear market. Prices last week hit a contract low. The wheat market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, if corn and soybeans continue to trend higher in the near term, wheat will follow. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $6.65 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $6.35 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.60 and then at $6.65. First support lies at Monday’s low of $6.47 1/4 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December HRW wheat closed up 5 cents at $7.07 1/4 Monday. Prices closed near mid-range on tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices last week hit a contract low. The HRW wheat market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $7.37 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $7.13 3/4 and then at $7.20. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at the contract low of $6.94 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

December oats closed up 6 1/4 cents at $3.37 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh four-week high on more short covering. Monday’s price action produced a bullish upside “breakout” on the daily bar chart that does give the bulls fresh upside technical momentum and also suggests a market low is in place. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $3.20. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.40. First support lies at $3.33 and then at Monday’s low of $3.31. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $3.37 and then at $3.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

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Questions? Just email me at [email protected] I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.

~Jim

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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