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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Improved Investor Risk Appetite

12 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - Improved investor risk appetite is the feature in the market place this week.

The specter of a U.S. military strike against Syria has receded significantly this week, amid a Russian plan to have Syria’s chemical weapons placed under international control. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry will meet with his Russian counterpart Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss the matter. Asian stock markets were lifted Thursday on the increased investor risk appetite. In overnight news, there was weaker-than-expected economic data coming out of the European Union Thursday, which pressured European stock markets. Euro zone industrial production fell by 1.5% from June to July, for the steepest one-month decline in a year. Year-on-year the July decline in industrial production was 2.1%, which put Euro zone industrial production at a three-year low. This important piece of economic data now calls into question the ability of the European Union’s collective economy to pull out of recession. The next important piece of U.S. economic news on the docket is Thursday morning’s weekly jobless claims report. Many traders and investors are looking ahead to next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). A slight majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank at next week’s meeting will announce it will begin to scale back, or “taper” its monthly bond-buying program. For the past several weeks the market place has been fixated on what the U.S. central bank will announce at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export price indexes, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

US Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term technical playing field as the bulls have faded recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.795 and then at 82.000. Shorter- term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.595 and then at 81.395. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

October Nymex crude oil prices are higher early today. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $109.00 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $108.00 and then at the overnight low of $107.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0


Markets were weaker overnight on position evening. Focus is on Thursday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, at which time updated corn and soybean production forecasts will be given by USDA. There could be some surprises in this report, and if there are, it’s likely those surprises could be bullish. Soybean bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears remain in firm technical command. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt are now becoming less of market factor by the day.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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