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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Asia, EU Markets Anxious

17 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - Asian and European stocks markets were a bit anxious overnight as traders and investors await the results of this week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The meeting begins on Tuesday morning and ends at midday Wednesday. The fact the Fed will at some point down the road begin to tap the brakes on its very easy money policies is factored into the market place.

However, the specific timing of Fed action on monetary policy is the uncertain factor that has traders and investors uncertain and just a bit anxious.

A majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank will at this week’s meeting announce it will begin to scale back, or “taper” its monthly bond-buying program. Some reckon the Fed will announce a $10 billion or $15 billion reduction in its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program.

The surprise to the markets could be if the Fed either does nothing at this meeting, or is more aggressive in its initial reduction in bond purchases. The FOMC will also update its forecasts for U.S. economic conditions in the coming months, which will also be closely examined by the market place. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will also hold a press conference Wednesday afternoon.

In other news overnight, the German ZEW economic survey came in at a reading of 49.6 in September versus 42.0 in August, which is the highest level in over three years. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the consumer price index, chain store sales, real earnings, Treasury international capital flow data, and the NAHB housing market index.--Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Bulls are weakening, technically. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.505 and then at 81.750. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 81.135 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

October Nymex crude oil prices are sharply lower early today. Prices are scoring a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading today.

In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $107.00 and then at $107.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $105.59 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

Grains

Markets were mixed but mostly lower overnight. Soybeans were solidly lower again overnight, wheat was weaker and corn near steady. Rainfall in the U.S. Corn Belt is somewhat helping late-maturing soybean plants, and that’s bearish for futures prices. Focus is on early yield reports on the harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops in the Corn Belt—and on any fresh export demand for U.S. grains.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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