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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Weaker Overnight

26 September 2013

GLOBAL - In more “Fed speak” this week, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president Jeffrey Lacker said Thursday he supported a faster tapering of the Fed’s monthly bond-buying program and said he is surprised the process has not already begun.

Meantime, the European Central Bank’s executive board member said Thursday the ECB needs to continue its expansive monetary policies.

The U.S. budget and debt ceiling issues have moved to the front burner of the market place. The U.S. government will have to at least partially shut down early next week if Congress does not pass a budget by that time.

Also, in mid-October the U.S. will hit its borrowing limit. This matter could be significantly bearish for most markets in the near term, as there is talk some of the U.S. government will shut down for a short time next week.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third-quarter gross domestic product report, pending home sales, and the Kansas City Federal Reserve business survey.--Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. Bears remain in overall near-term technical command.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 80.745 and then at 80.949.

Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 80.395 and then at last week’s low of 80.155. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today, on short covering after hitting a six-week low Wednesday.

In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $104.00 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $102.20 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Grains

Markets were weaker overnight. Wheat bulls are making a move as futures prices Wednesday hit multi-week highs.

There are now early technical clues the wheat market has put in a major low. Soybean and some corn harvesting are picking up speed this week.

Traders are looking ahead to next Monday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks report.

Technically, the soybean bulls still have the overall advantage, but have faded, to begin to suggest a market top is in place. Corn market bears remain in firm technical command.

TheCropSite News Desk



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