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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: US Stock Indexes Seeing Selling Pressure

14 October 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The U.S. stock indexes are seeing selling pressure Monday morning as the U.S. Congress and President Obama over the weekend made little to no progress on reopening the government and agreeing on a measure to extend the government debt ceiling.

Friday afternoon there was hope in the market place a weekend deal would be reached. However,
some congressional leaders did meet Sunday and termed their meeting constructive. The U.S. government has now been closed for two weeks and late this week it’s likely the U.S. will reach its debt ceiling. World economic and political leaders have warned the U.S. government to get its act
together and get its budget mess solved, or risk very serious markets and economic disruption worldwide.

Still, the sense of the market place so far is that a last-minute deal will be reached by U.S. lawmakers. Markets have been remarkably calm with not much risk aversion the past couple weeks.

The dearth of U.S. economic data the past two weeks has put a damper on many markets. There is no U.S. economic data due for release Monday, which is the U.S. Columbus Day holiday. The U.S. Treasury markets are closed Monday. 

Economic data released from China Monday showed its consumer price index rose to 3.1% on an annual basis versus a 2.6% rise in August. The CPI rise was a bit hotter than expected by the market place. In other economic data from China, new car sales rose in September at the fastest rate in eight months. China’s trade surplus narrowed by $15.2 billion in September from $28.5 billion in August. Overall, this latest economic data from China is deemed upbeat by the market
place.

US Dollar Index

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bears remain in overall near-term technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.475 and then at 80.685. Shorter-
term support is seen at Friday’s low of 80.340 and then at 80.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

November Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $102.00 and then at the overnight high
of $102.52. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $100.60 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Grains

Markets were mixed overnight. Soybeans were firmer, corn near steady and wheat slightly lower. Harvest is at full speed in most areas of the Corn Belt. It is estimated that U.S. soybean harvest is 35% to 40% complete. Corn harvest is below that. But with much of USDA still closed, there
will be no crop progress data this week and there remains a lack of fresh fundamental news for grain traders to digest, and that favors the bears. Technically, the corn bears are in full command, soybean bears have the slight chart advantage, and wheat bulls possess the slight near-term
technical advantage.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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