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Corn, Soybean Futures Gain Following Not-So-Bearish USDA Report

11 November 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - Corn and soybean futures saw solid short-covering bounces Friday following a midday USDA report that was not as bearish as many grain traders had feared before the report's release.

The USDA data for wheat was deemed by traders to be neutral. In late futures trading, December corn was sporting gains of around 5 cents, January soybeans were up 23 cents and December soft red winter wheat was near steady.

The U.S. Agriculture Department pegged U.S. corn production at 13.989 billion bushels in its latest monthly report for October. That figure was modestly bullish as the average trade guess expected production at 14.022 billion bushels.

However, this year's corn crop is much bigger than last year's drought-ravaged corn crop that produced 10.780 billion bushels.

USDA puts the national average corn yield at 160.4 bu. per acre, up from the September estimate of 155.3 bu. per acre. For the 2013-14 U.S. carryout, corn was projected at 1.887 billion bushels; up from September report figure of 1.855 billion bushels.

For 2013-14 global carryover, corn is seen at 164.33 million metric tons (MMT); up from September figure of 151.42 MMT.

Total U.S. soybean production came in at 3.258 billion bushels for the October USDA report, which was just above trade expectations of 3.225 billion bushels. Soybean carryover is seen by USDA at 170 million bushels; up from September's projection of 150 million bushels.

The national average soybean yield is pegged by USDA at 43.0 bushels per acre, up from the September estimate of 41.2 bushels.

Soybeans see a 70.23 MMT world carryout, which was deemed bullish by traders. That's down from September's figure of 71.54 MMT.

U.S. wheat carryover is seen by USDA at 565 million bushels in its latest report. That's up slightly from September estimate of 561 million bushels. World wheat carryout is seen by USDA at 178.48 MMT, which is up from September's 176.28 MMT

With this latest USDA report now in the books, grain futures traders will start to focus more on export demand for U.S. grains, and on crop conditions in other major growing regions of the world.

Further Reading

You can view the full report by clicking here.

TheCropSite News Desk

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