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Wyckoff's Grains Outlook: Corn Has a Bullish Key Reversal

Wyckoff's Grains Outlook: Corn Has a Bullish Key Reversal

13 November 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

ANALYSIS - The key reversal is an early technical clue that corn has put in a market bottom, writes Jim Wyckoff, grain analyst for TheCropSite.com.

Last Friday's monthly USDA supply and demand report was not as bearish as many had reckoned, and that prompted heavy short covering. Given the recent seasonal selling pressure in corn and the US harvest winding down, it's also the time of year that market lows in grains can and do occur. Corn bears are still in overall near-term technical control.

December corn futures closed down 2 cents at $4.30 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.40. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $4.15 1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at today's high of $4.34 1/2 and then at this week's high of $4.38. First support is seen at this week's low of $4.27 1/4 and then at $4.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Soybeans

A fresh USDA export sale to China helped fuel the bulls this week. Last Friday's monthly USDA supply and demand report was not as bearish as many had reckoned, and that has also prompted heavy short covering. Soybean bulls now have the near-term technical advantage. 

January soybeans closed up 1/4 cent at $13.14 3/4 a bushel Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Another USDA export sale to China today limited selling pressure. Soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $13.40 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $12.75. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $13.19 3/4 and then at $13.25. First support is seen at today's low of $13.07 1/2 and then at $13.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

December soybean meal closed down $4.20 at $423.50 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $451.20. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $400.00. First resistance comes in at $425.00 and then at this week's high of $429.30. First support is seen at today's low of $420.70 and then at this week's low of $417.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December bean oil closed up 21 points at 40.96 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering. The bean oil bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 42.12 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 39.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 41.09 cents and then at this week's high of 41.27 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 40.63 cents and then at 40.31 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Wheat

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1/4 cent at $6.45 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh two-month low today. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $6.75 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $6.35 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.52 and then at this week's high of $6.59 1/2. First support lies at today's low of $6.43 1/4 and then at $6.35 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December HRW wheat closed down 1 cent at $7.02 1/4 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh six-week low today. The HRW wheat market bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $6.87 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $7.14 3/4 and then at $7.25. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.87 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

Oats

December oats closed down 1/2 cent at $3.36 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. A bullish symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.

Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $3.48 1/4. First support lies at this week's low of $3.32 3/4 and then at $3.30. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $3.41 3/4 and then at $3.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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