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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Remain Mixed

20 November 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The market place is awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes release on Wednesday afternoon.

The minutes will be from the October meeting, and as always traders and investors will be scrutinizing the report for any fresh clues on Fed monetary policy moves upcoming. However, there is also other important U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday, including the consumer price index, real earnings, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories, existing home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. This is a big day for U.S. economic data.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The FOMC minutes release Wednesday afternoon could cause at least brief market price volatility. Also, it’s a heavy slate of other U.S. economic data Wednesday.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did make a speech Tuesday night, in which he extolled the virtues of continuing an easy money policy. His remarks were not surprising and the markets were virtually unfazed by the outgoing Fed chief’s comments.

European and Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed and were subdued Wednesday, ahead of the FOMC minutes release.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on more mild profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,789.70 and then at Monday’s record high of 1,799.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,778.00 and then at 1,765.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,385.00 and then at 3,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,370.75 and then at 3,360.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on mild profit taking. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s record high of 15,990 and then at 16,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at this week’s low of 15,910 and then at 15,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131 6/32 and then at 131 16/32 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130 23/32 and then at 130 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.18.5 and then at this week’s high of 125.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.10.5 and then at 125.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 81.090 and then at 81.305. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 80.785 and then at 80.550. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today and hovering not far above last week’s 4.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $94.29 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $93.80 and then at last week’s low of $93.17. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were again narrowly mixed overnight. Not much new. Corn bears are in firm technical command. Soybean bulls have faded a bit, while wheat bears are in full control. Fundamentally, with the U.S. harvest nearly complete, trader attention turns to the South American corn and soybean planting and growing season just ahead. Worldwide export demand for U.S. grains is also at the forefront of the market place. The beaten-down corn and wheat futures markets are starting to draw some better demand interest from end-users of those grains world-wide. There continues to be Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans, and that is limiting selling pressure in that market.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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