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MY 2012/13 Soybean Meal Imports Declined Slightly

16 June 2014
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

PHILIPPINES - Philippine soybean production is insignificant and the minimal imports are purchased by one crusher.

Copra production in MY 13/14 is forecast at 2.4 MMT, down from over 2.65 MMT in MY 12/13, due to considerable damage caused by typhoon Haiyan in the Eastern Visayas region and an anticipated cyclical decline in production. Output is expected to decline further to 2.35 MMT in MY 14/15 as the impact from the severe weather becomes more apparent on surviving coconut trees.

MY 12/13 SBM imports slightly declined to 1.79 MMT (compared to 1.83 MMT in MY 11/12) due to consolidation in the hog industry (i.e., small back yard raisers are decreasing in number while larger farms are expanding). SBM imports are forecast to reach 1.9 MMT in MY 13/14 and 1.95 MMT in MY 14/15 as demand recovers and larger farms continue to expand.

According to local feed industry contacts, as a result of the growing use of sophisticated nutrition technology (due to consolidation) and the ensuing demand for consistent, high quality ingredients, US SBM market share is expected to increase from 63 per cent in MY12/13 to roughly 65 per cent in MY 13/14.

Copra meal exports are expected to decline from 788,000 MT in MY 12/13 to 525,000 MT in MY 13/14, and 500,000 MT in MY 14/15 reflecting diminishing copra supply.

Local soybean oil (SBO) production and trade are insignificant due to the local preference for CNO or palm oil (depending on the price). Overall domestic CNO consumption is expected to decline through MY 14/15 reflecting diminishing copra supply.

CNO is the top Philippine agricultural export and the United States is its top market. MY 12/13 CNO production was at 1.75 MMT (up from 1.55 MMT in MY 11/12) and is projected to decline to 1.5 MMT in MY 13/14 and to 1.49 MMT in MY 14/15 due to declining copra production. From 758,000 MT in MY 12/13, overall CNO consumption is expected to decline to 677,000 MT in MY 13/14 and to 661,000 MT in MY 14/15.

Industrial CNO consumption was pared down in MY 12/13 as an anticipated increase in the mandated biodiesel blend in 2013 (from two per cent to five per cent) was not implemented. Industrial CNO demand is expected to decline through MY 14/15 due to declining copra output. Edible CNO demand is also expected to slightly decline through MY 14/15. CNO exports are projected to drop to 850,000 MT in MY 13/14 (a decline of 25 per cent over the previous year), and to 830,000 MT for MY 14/15.

Further Reading

You can view the USDA GAIN: Philippines Oilseeds and Products Annual 2014 report by clicking here.

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