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USDA Reports Provide Some Surprises for Corn

USDA Reports Provide Some Surprises for Corn

11 November 2014

US - Based on the worn adage that "big crops get bigger", analysts generally expected the USDA's November Crop Production report to contain larger forecasts for the size of the current US corn and soybean harvest.

The soybean production forecast was larger, but the corn forecast was smaller than the October forecast.

The US soybean crop is now forecast at 3.958 billion bushels, 31 million bushels larger than the October forecast.

The US average yield is forecast at 47.5 bushels, 0.4 bushel larger than the October forecast.

Yield forecasts changed by a bushel or two for the majority of states, with smaller forecasts in six of the 29 states. Production forecasts were not changed for the rest of the world.

In the November WASDE report, the USDA increased the forecast of both the domestic crush and exports during the current marketing year so the forecast of year-ending stocks remains at 450 million bushels, or 12.4 percent of projected consumption.

The domestic crush should be supported by strong soybean meal demand, particularly in the export market, and by favorable crush margins. The pace of soybean export sales and shipments also support the larger export forecast.

The marketing year average price is still forecast in a range of $9.00 to $11.00. Current spot prices in the Eastern Corn Belt near the mid point of that range.

The US corn crop is projected at 14.407 billion bushels, 68 million bushels smaller than the October forecast. The US average yield is forecast at 173.4 bushels, 0.8 below the October forecast.

The yield forecasts declined by five bushels in Minnesota, three bushels in Kansas, and two bushels in Iowa.

The change in the production forecast is relatively small, but is in the opposite direction of the expected change.

The projection of both corn and total coarse grain production in the rest of the world was increased slightly, with declines in the projections of Chinese and Argentina coarse grain production more than offset by increases for the European Union and Mexico.

Further Reading

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