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Analysts Disagree On Soybean Outlook

08 October 2010

BRAZIL – Forecasts have fuelled speculation over the yield of this year's soybean harvest in Brazil.

According to, the crop supply bureau in the Latin American country, Conab, has forecast that the 2010-11 harvest could produce a bumper crop of 67.6 million to 68.9 million tonnes.

The bureau's predictions echo estimates from analysis group Celeres, who have said that output could beat last year's figure of 68.7 million tonnes.

However, the website reported that some calculations are lower, with the United States Department of Agriculture's Brasilla office offering an outlook figure of 67.5 million tonnes, and analysts at Safras and Mercado suggesting a yield of 67.1 million tonnes.

Some of the uncertainty surrounding the performance of soybean crops is related to differing opinions on the potential impact of the La Nina meteorological conditions, which typically cause dryer weather than the wet El Nino event.

Consultant Kory Melby said: "I read that the La Nina conditions are the strongest in 27 years. I read about soybean crop size … at 69 million tonnes. This will not be the case."

Earlier this week, reported that soybean farmers in Brazil's north west are struggling with an incurable soybean-plant ailment, termed "mad soy disease".

TheCropSite News Desk

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