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Weekly Roberts Market Report

02 November 2011

Michael T. Roberts
Extension Agriculture Economist,
Dairy and Commodity Marketing,
NC State University

US - Corn, soybean and wheat futures closed down on Monday, writes Michael T. Roberts.

CORN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) finished down on Monday. The DEC'11 contract closed at $6.470/bu; off 8.0¢/bu.

MAR'12 futures closed at $6.590/bu; down 8.0¢/bu. The DEC'12 contract closed down 8.5¢/bu at $6.074/bu.

A strengthening US dollar, falling equities, and trading jitters tied to the bankruptcy of global futures giant MF Global weighed on prices. Funds sold 9000 lots.

Exports were bearish with USDA putting corn-inspected-for-export at 27.736 mi bu vs. estimates for 28-33 mi bu. Corn prices still appear weak in the short run (see chart below).

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down on Monday. NOV'11 soybean futures closed 9.5¢/bu lower at $12.074/bu.

The MAR'12 contract closed at $12.270/bu; off 8.75¢/bu. The same outside forces pulled at soybeans as they did for corn. Volume was light.

Additionally, larger-than-expected deliveries on first notice day were high.

Traders were expected between 200-400 lots. Traders expected continued high export competition from Brazil and built that into price bids.

However, USDA put soybeans-inspected-for-export at 48.518 mi bu vs. estimates for 39-42 mi bu. Good harvest numbers from the US and heavy Brazilian exports will continue to suppress soybean prices.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) closed down on Monday. The DEC'11 contract closed at $6.282/bu; off 16.25¢/bu. JULY'12 wheat futures finished at $7.042/bu; down 14.75¢/bu.

A firm dollar and equity trouble in outside markets weighed on wheat prices. Volume was very light.

Rains in Ohio's wheat belt hindering planting there could prove supportive.

Exports were neutral with USDA putting wheat-inspected-for-export at 20.820 mi bu vs. estimates for 15-21 mi bu. Looks like the short-run upside potential I pointed out two weeks ago has run its course.

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