Global Harvest Expectations Appear Strong

Greetings! As we start seeing the combines make some headway this week in the US Midwest, I thought we’d take a look at harvests estimates around the world.

EU wheat: Production Estimated as Third Highest
Summer conditions continue to enhance EU wheat yields and set the stage for a bumper crop. Production for 2013/14 is estimated at 142.9 million tons, up 1.5 million tons or 1.1 percent from last month. Unseasonably cold and wet spring weather resulted in delayed development for EU winter wheat, but warm and dry weather during July and August enabled crop development to accelerate in the UK, Germany and Poland.

Russia Wheat: Good Conditions for Spring Wheat

USDA forecasts Russia wheat production for 2013/14 at 54.0 million tons, unchanged from last month but up 16.3 million or 43 percent from last year. Winter-wheat harvest was complete in European Russia by mid- August with reports of net output of 34 to 35 million tons, an increase of 9 million tons over last year. The potential yield for spring wheat in western Siberia is high. Early-September weather was warm and dry in Siberia and harvest operations are progressing at a rapid pace.

Canada Wheat: Production Forecast at a 22-Year Record

USDA estimates 2013/14 Canada wheat production at 31.5 million tons, up 16 percent from last year and 6.8 percent from last month. USDA is estimating record yields, despite a late planting start due to lingering snow cover and waterlogged fields throughout the western Prairies. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan provincial crop reports rated 88 percent of the crop as good to excellent in their most recent crop reports.

Ukraine Sunflower: Favorable Weather Boosts Yield

Ukraine sunflower seed output for 2013/14 is estimated at 11.5 million tons, up 2.5 million or 28 percent from last year. This year’s crop benefited from the absence of heat-related stress combined with adequate subsurface soil moisture. Yield is estimated at a record 1.92 tons per hectare, 21 percent above the 5-year average.

Brazil Soybeans: Record due to Increased Planting

USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at a record 88.0 million tons, up 6.0 million tons or 6.8 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 28.9 million hectares, up 1.2 million hectares or 4.3 percent from last year.

Soybean planting begins in mid- September in most parts of the country. Most of the Brazilian states abide by the anti-rust consortium’s planting recommendations. These are fallow periods of either 60 or 90 days where farmers agree not to plant soybeans. This rule minimizes the inoculum for Asiatic Soybean Rust; the rust spore can survive about 50 days.

Argentine Corn: Rain Needed Before Main Planting

Argentine corn production for 2013/14 is forecast at 26.0 million metric tons, 3.7 percent below last month and 1.9 percent below last year. Shifting international prices are expected to encourage farmers to plant less area to corn and more to soybeans. The combination of lower corn prices, high production costs and a generally weaker financial situation for most producers is showing up in slow corn pre-season sales.

I'll mention it again this week… as the combines are rolling, please remember to put safety first!

Have a great week!