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How Are Crops Progressing Around the World? - 27 November 2012

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Tuesday 27th November 2012.
Sarah Mikesell - TheCropSite Senior Editor

Sarah Mikesell
Senior Editor


How Are Crops Progressing Around the World?

The summer drought in the US and other parts of the world have us closely watching global grain supplies. Today, let's take a look at what's happening with current crops and grain supplies around the globe.

Southern Brazil, which accounts for 35 per cent of total Brazilian production, continues to see dry weather, while wet conditions in Argentina cause concern. Although southern Brazil could see a turn-around as rain is expected this week.

Brazil's 2012 soybean crop has been revised up to 67.7Mt from 66.8Mt. This is slightly bearish to the market due to the extra 800kt available for exports.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange put Argentina's soybean planting at 36.6 per cent complete, 9.7 percentage points under year-ago figures. Dry weather early this week is expected to help Argentine farmers get their beans in the ground before the rain returns.

The last three months of rain and flooding are expected to reduce Argentina's wheat crop for the 2012/13 season. Wheat production is now seen at 11.1Mt down from 11.5Mt. Reports indicate poor quality with more rain in the forecast at the end of the week.

Australia's wheat production may fall below 20 million tonnes during the 2012/13 season due to a dry spell across Western Australia (WA), reported Reuters. WA produces at least one-third of Australia's total wheat crop. Analysts estimate WA's wheat output at 5.5 million tonnes and 6.9 million tonnes this year, much lower than last year's record crop of 11.73 million tonnes.

Russia's carryover stocks could take a hit this year as grain exports are expected to reach as high as 15.5Mt this season, which is significantly higher than its official exportable surplus of 10Mt. Carry-over stocks are now expected at 6Mt compared with 19.4Mt last year.

Ukrainian grain traders are slowing milling wheat exports, says the Ministry. To-date, Ukraine has exported 5.2Mt out of an agreed limit of 5.5Mt. The limit was put in place to prevent domestic price increases.

India's expected bumper harvest has pushed prices lower, dropping 6.5 per cent lower than the record price on 17 Nov as the demand for wheat products slowed with the end of their festival season.

The US hard red winter wheat crop is still a big concern. Forecasts for a dry biased weather pattern are expected for the next two weeks. Virtually no rain or snow will fall in western crop areas and the few rain showers that occur in the east will be insignificant.

US corn export sales were larger than expected last week. Limited grain for feed in the EU is fuelling corn imports. US wheat exports were strong with 635Kt of net-sales, the highest since early August, as EU and Black Sea origins become less competitive.

As for China, the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, known as PMI, showed a reading of 50.4 in November, according to Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale, Inc. The reading was up from October's 49.5. Not only was this higher than the previous month but a reading over 50.0 is seen as economic growth. This is the first time in 13 months of a positive number.

Demand remains strong with China buying 14 per cent more US soybeans, year-on-year, since 1 September.

Have a great week!

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This Weeks Articles and Analysis

FAO Food Outlook: Food Prices Below Year-ago; Global Food Imports Down
The FAO says food prices are below the levels of last year, and global food imports are down by well over US$1 billion.

Sustainable Land-use Concept for South America
In the world of agriculture, climate protection and intensive farming are generally assumed to be a contradiction in terms. At Technische Universität München (TUM), however, scientists have come up with a new land development concept that could change this view.

FAO: World Cereal Production Forecast to Fall by 2.7 Per Cent
Global cereal supply and demand balance is forecast to tighten considerably in 2012/13, due mainly to declines in wheat and maize production, according to the FAO Outlook Report. World cereal production is forecast to fall by 2.7 percent from previous year’s record crop, leading to a 25 million tonne contraction in world stocks.

Food Production Creates 29 Per Cent of GHG Emissions
Feeding the world releases up to 17,000 megatonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually, according to analysis by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Market Reports

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 22 November 2012
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USDA GAIN: Indonesia Grain and Feed Update November 2012
USDA GAIN: Thailand Weekly Rice Price Update - 23 November 2012
Europe Mars Bulletin Vol. 20 No. 11
USDA GAIN: Japan Grain and Feed Update November 2012

Global Crop Industry News

   United States

US Winter Wheat Crop in Trouble
White Rot Fungus Boosts Ethanol Production From Corn Stalks, Cobs, Leaves
Iowa Nutrient Strategy Released
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Tuesday
Cost of Classic US Thanksgiving Dinner Up Slightly
CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Wednesday
CME Repository Service Approved as Swap Data Repository
Production Underway at Animal Nutrition Center
Economist: US Unlikely to Dominate Future Corn Exports
GeoGrain: River Woes Push Basis Lower
Grain Hedge: Grains Drifted Higher Last Week
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Friday
Focus on Soybean Oil
US Biodiesel Blends to be Offered All Year Round
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Monday

   United Kingdom

Adjudicator Must be Able to Fine Unfair Retailers
Beware of Overage Payments When Developing Renewables Projects
Water Event Highlights Need for Collaboration, Investment
NFU Takes CAP Fight to European Parliament
Rapeseed Oil Gets Biotech Boost
Critical Research Priorities Unveiled for the Future of Food Production
Minister Announces £3.6Million Boost for Agri Food Sector
'Get Back to Basics' Urges HSBC's Head of Agriculture


Rice of the Future Gets Financial Boost
FAO: Rice Production Outpacing Consumption
FAO Food Outlook - November 2012 - Overview
Major Funding to Help World’s Poorest Farmers
African Union, FAO, Lula Institute Join Efforts to Fight Hunger in Africa
Rabobank: Wine Is New Growth Market
Growing Populations and Wealth Changing Food Demand


Canola Storage Considerations in November
Harper Government, Grain Industry to Improve Grain Value Chain
New Crop Returns Calculator Helps Find Costs, Breakevens


Affluent Will Be Major Driver of China's Growth
Agricultural Insurance Shelters Farmers in Grain Belts


Spain to Lose 16 Per Cent of Funds in Proposed EU Budget


Bee on the Lookout for Asian Honey Bees
Farmers Express Murray Darling Basin Plan Importance
World-first Crop Production Forecasting Technology for Queensland


Record for German Agricultural Exports
Agricultural Exports Up in Income, Down on Volume


Delayed Rainfall Weakens Indonesia Corn Plantings

   Russian Federation

Kabardino-Balkaria Farmers Receive State Aid


Share of Small Farmers in Farm Loans Grows to 45 Per Cent


Asia's Next Rice Granary: Myanmar?


Rice Planting to Resume in Fukushima

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