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USDA World Agricultural Production

14 January 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production - January 2013USDA World Agricultural Production - January 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production

Argentina Soybeans: Planting Difficult with Excessive Rainfall

Flooding Continues in SE Cordoba and NW Buenos Aires, Argentina

The USDA forecasts 2012/13 Argentine soybean production at 54.0 million, 2 percent less than last month but 35 percent more than last year. Area is estimated at 19.5 million hectares, 2 percent lower from last month and up 11 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.77 tons per hectare, half a percent lower than last month and 21 percent higher than last year.

Recent rains continue to hamper seeding in some areas. About 85 percent of the expected area has been seeded by the end of the first week of January. Problem areas, however, continue to be in northwest Buenos Aires (parts of the departments of General Villegas, Ameghino, and General Pinto) and southern Cordoba (department of Presidente Roque Sáenz Peña) where flooding may not allow 230,000 Ha to be seeded to a crop due to standing water. Ponding of excess rain on fields in the center of the province of Buenos Aires may also prevent or greatly delay planting on an additional 42,000 Ha. In early January, more rain in the northern regions of Argentina further complicated planting advances postponing seeding until fields dry enough to allow planters back in the fields. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams at 202-720-0107.)

Brazil Soybeans: Estimated Yield Increases Following Beneficial Rainfall

The USDA forecasts Brazil soybean production for 2012/13 at 82.5 million tons, up 1.5 million, or 2 percent, from last month and up 16.0 million, or 24 percent, from last year’s droughtaffected crop. Area is estimated at 27.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 2.5 million hectares, or 10 percent, from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, compared to 2.66 tons per hectare last year and the five-year average of 2.85 tons per hectare.

Brazil: Soybean Production by State

Yield prospects for Brazil soybeans have increased due to good earlyseason conditions in the key states of Mato Grosso and Parana. Soybean crop stages vary considerably across the country. The harvest of the early varieties in Mato Grosso has begun as the last of the soybean planting in Brazil is finishing. Brazilian farmers reacted enthusiastically to high soybean prices this year and increased area by 10 percent to a record 27.5 million hectares. Brazil is forecasted to be the world’s largest producer of soybeans, surpassing the United States this year when the United States suffered through its worst drought in 50 years. (For more information, contact Bob Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)

Argentine Corn: Planting Continues Around Rain-Soaked Ground

USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2012/13 at 28.0 million tons, up 2 percent from last month and 33 percent above the 21 million tons grown in 2011/12. Area is estimated at 3.5 million hectares 5 percent less than last month and 3 percent less than last year’s droughtaffected, harvested area. The yield for the crop is estimated at 8.0 tons per hectare 8 percent more than last month and 37 percent more than last year’s ravaged yields.

Rains continue over the core-planting regions of Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Santa Fe and up into the northern regions where planting is nearing the end. Of the crop originally forecast to be planted, 4 percent in Buenos Aires remains unplanted; 4 percent in Cordoba; 11 percent in La Pampa; 11 percent in Santa Fe; and, 60 percent in the Northern regions, according to the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture in early January. Soil profiles throughout the country have ample moisture. Early-seeded corn is at the seed-fill stage and shows good yield potential because of the good moisture. There has been some crop spraying of corn due to reports of severe armyworm infestations in some locations along with sporadic disease such as smut and corn blight. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams at 202-720-0107.)

China Cotton: Production in 2012/13 Larger than Expected

Cotton production for 2012/13 is estimated at 33.5 million bales (7.3 million tons), up 2.0 million, or 6 percent, from last month and up 1 percent from last year. The estimated output is slightly below the 5-year average and well below the record set in 2007/08 (37.0 million bales). The estimated area of 5.2 million hectares is up 4 percent this month but down 4 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1,403 kilograms per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and up 5 percent from last year. Record yields in Northwest China are expected to offset yield reductions in eastern China, which suffered from excessive rainfall and typhoon damage during the latter part of the growing season.

China: Cotton Production by Province

China Cotton Production

More than 50 percent of China’s cotton was produced in Xinjiang Province (Northwest China) in 2012/13

The revisions are based on procurement and classification data published by official Chinese sources, which indicate greater-than-expected output in 2012/13. The increased production came almost entirely from Xinjiang province (Northwest China), which now accounts for more than half of China’s total cotton crop. Favorable weather, increased planted area, heavy investment in irrigation and mechanization, and supportive government procurement policies have all contributed to the remarkable output in Xinjiang this year. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

Argentina Wheat: Harvest Slow but Progressing in Buenos Aires and La Pampa

The USDA forecasts Argentine wheat production for 2012/13 at 11.0 million tons, down 4 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month and down 28 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.97 tons per hectare, down 2 percent from last month and down 1 percent from last year.

Wet Conditions in Southern Buenos Aires, Argentina as compared with Last Year

Central Buenos Aires province has been hit by excessive moisture as shown by the comparison above of planted area this year compared to last year. More ponding and full soil moisture profiles can be seen between existing lakes. Wheat harvest has slowed due to conditions.

Favorable early season moisture conditions deteriorated when above-normal rains continued over stretches of La Pampa, particularly during the last half of the growing season. Rosario and surrounding areas have received excessive rainfall for the season on the open, flat topography. Ponding not only damaged crops but also slowed harvest and heightened concerns over disease and grain quality. The first week of January, harvest activity was concentrated around the provinces of Buenos Aires (55 percent of wheat remains to be harvested) and La Pampa (20 percent of the crop still to be harvested) where rain two weeks ago slowed the harvest. As of the week ending in Jan. 5, 30 percent of the Argentine crop remained to be harvested, mostly in the province of Buenos Aires. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams at 202- 270-0107.)

January 2013

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