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USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

01 May 2013

USDA GAIN: Indonesia Grain and Feed Annual 2013USDA GAIN: Indonesia Grain and Feed Annual 2013

In marketing year (MY) 2012/13, Post forecasts Indonesian wheat imports will increase by approximately 6.9 percent to 6.9 million metric tons (MMT), compared to 6.457 MMT in MY 2011/12. Post also expects that Indonesian corn imports will increase by 1.7 MMT in MY 2012/13, which reflects an increase of 200,000 MT over Post’s previous estimate of 1.5 MMT. Post estimates that in MY 2012/13 production levels for Indonesian corn and milled rice equivalent will increase to 9 MMT and 37.5 MMT respectively. Increased corn estimates are based on expected increased levels of Indonesia’s feed production in calendar year (CY) 2013. These predicted increases also reflect a higher use of hybrid corn seed and more high-yielding paddy seeds varieties, as well as more favorable weather conditions.
USDA GAIN Report - Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed



Higher demand for wheat flour and moderate prices for flour in Indonesia, relative to other Asian countries, has motivated multinational wheat flour-based food manufacturers to begin operations in Indonesia. Small and medium wheat-based enterprises are also growing by three to five percent annually. APTINDO reported that currently around 200,000 small and medium scale enterprises which involve a total of 2.0 million workers are operational in Indonesia.

In MY 2010/11, Indonesian annual per capita wheat flour consumption rate was 18 kg. Relatively stable macro-economic conditions have allowed for more middle and upper-middle income consumers to diversify their diets. Changing Indonesian dietary habits include more western style foods like bread and pasta. Rather than eating rice for all three daily meals, many Indonesians have switched to eating bread or noodles for breakfast. Eating out culture is also driving demand for wheat-based food products. The number of high-end bakeries is continuously growing, mainly in major Indonesian cities such as Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan, and Bandung. The price of instant noodles is currently cheaper than rice and many more lower and middle income consumers substitute instant noodles for breakfast or dinner. As a result, the noodle industry continues to be a rapidly growing sector and consumes 60 percent of Indonesia’s wheat flour. The bakery industry follows with 20 percent consumption of flour, while household and the commercial biscuit producers each make up the balance with 10 percent consumption respectively. As a result of these factors, MY 2012/13 Indonesian wheat consumption is estimated to increase to 6.2 MMT, over the previous MY 2011/12 of 6.0 MMT.


During the 1998 Indonesian monetary crisis, only four Indonesian flour millers were operating. Currently there are 21 Indonesian flour millers with a total installed capacity of 8.1 MMT per year. During 2013, an additional four new flour millers will likely begin operations, with an additional estimated combined annual capacity of 2.0 MMT. These additional stakeholders will increase Indonesia’s total installed annual capacity to 10.0 MMT. Currently, Indonesia’s flour mills are operating at roughly 70 percent of their operational capacity. The current running capacity is an increased from 65 – 68 percent in previous marketing year. Several investigations conducted by the Indonesian Anti Dumping Commission (Komisi Anti Dumping Indonesia, KADI) over the accusations of dumping price of wheat flour from Turkey and the recent temporary safeguard duty on imported wheat flour have discouraged importers to continue importing wheat flour. There are some of those wheat flour importers who are establishing the new flour mills. The new flour mills are located outside of Java, the island with the majority of Indonesia’s population and the home to most of its flour mills.

Post estimates that MY 2012/13 wheat imports will increase by 6.9 percent to 6.9 MMT compared to the previous MY 2011/12 of 6.457 MMT based on the growing flour industry in Indonesia. A growing wheat flour-based food industry will continue creating more demand for wheat and will further increase wheat imports in MY 2013/14 to 7.4 MMT. In MY 2011/12, due to its geographic proximity to Indonesia and the noodle industry’s preference for Australian standard white wheat, Australia held the largest market share of imported wheat (72 percent), followed by Canada (14 percent) and the United States (13 percent). In MY 2012/13, the share of the U.S. wheat imports into Indonesia is expected to decrease by 10 percent due to a recovery in Australian exports to Indonesia. The tight competition with Australia may keep market share for U.S. wheat at 10 percent in MY 2013/14 although there may be an overall increase in domestic flour mills capacity, due to stronger demand, new operators, and the safeguard duties applied against wheat flour imports.

As of December 5, 2012, Indonesia began to impose a 20 percent temporary safeguard duty on imported wheat flour. As a result, the Indonesian Flour Mills Association (Asosiasi Produsen Tepung Terigu Indonesia, APTINDO) reported that there has been a significant decline of wheat flour imports. Currently, domestically produced wheat flour meets 96 percent of total Indonesian demand for wheat flour. Turkey has worked via diplomatic channels to regain its market share of wheat flour exports to Indonesia. Currently Turkey is considering action against Indonesia in the World Trade Organization (WTO). APTINDO notes that there will be no shortage to the domestic wheat flour supply. Indonesia’s feed sector, which consumes a total of 100,000 MT of imported feed grade wheat flour annually, is now switching to domestically produced feed-grade wheat flour.

Based on the Global Trade Atlas data on MY 2011/12 Indonesian wheat flour imports, Turkey maintained the largest market share of 54 percent, followed with Sri Lanka (34 percent), and Ukraine (5 percent). In MY 2011/12, Indonesia imported 611,107 MT of flour, or an equivalent of 835,994 MT of wheat.

Recently, APTINDO requested to GOI to impose an additional 10 percent import duty to imported wheat flour for feed use from the current 5 percent duty. Since 2003, the GOI categorized feed ingredients as strategic commodities which were exempt from a 10 percent value added tax (VAT). APTINDO claimed that some wheat flour importers use this as a loophole to import wheat flour for human consumption rather than buying domestically produced wheat flour, which is subject to 10 percent VAT. The GOI remains undecided as to how they will respond this request.


The retail price of medium protein wheat flour in Jakarta market was reported at Rp. 7,663/kg ($787/MT) in March 2013. It has slightly increased from Rp. 7,600/kg ($780/MT) reported in December 2012.



Post expects that Indonesia’s corn production increased slightly over the past year. Favorable weather provided better opportunity for farmers in upland areas to grow corn during the second cropping season and farmers in the irrigated lowland areas on Java continued to grow corn during the third cropping cycle. 2011’s weather condition was different over 2009 and 2010, when Indonesia experience higher than average levels of rain during the dry season. That situation caused farmers in upland areas to continue to grow rice during the second cropping cycle due to the availability of water from rainfall. During the current marketing year, farmers in upland areas will leave their fields idle during the third cropping cycle due to a lack of rainfall, compared to the same period in 2009 and 2010. Farmers report that most of the corn planted in upland areas was harvested by late February and early March 2013. The first and major corn planting season normally takes place from November to February (49 percent). The second planting season takes place from March to June (37 percent). The last one occurs in July to September (14 percent). Farmers did not report on significant challenges with pest and/or disease outbreaks.

Farmers’ Terms of Trade (Nilai Tukar Petani, NTP) are the terms of trade between agricultural products that farmers produce to the goods and services that farmers use as production inputs has been increasing over the past four years. The NTP is especially high during harvesting times, particularly March, June, and October of each year. The higher the NTP, the higher farmer’s purchasing power.

Increasing farmers’ terms of trade, combined with increasing preference to use more high yielding varieties has resulted in higher yield. Corn seed suppliers reported that in MY 2012/13 total area grown with hybrid corn seed is expected to reach 37 percent, an increase from 35 percent in previous MY 2011/12. All major hybrid corn seed suppliers are expecting for increased sales in MY2012/13. A large hybrid corn seed supplier is starting the operation of new hybrid seed facility in East Java in order to meet demand from farmers. The new facility has the installed capacity to produce 5,700 MT of hybrid corn seed.

Currently, prices of corn at farmer level ranges from Rp. 3,000/kg ($308/MT) to Rp. 3,500/kg ($359/MT). The price of hybrid corn seed also went up. Currently, prices of hybrid corn seed ranges from Rp. 48,000/kg ($4.9/kg) to Rp. 80,000/kg ($8.2/kg) compared to Rp. 55,000/kg ($5.6/kg) to Rp. 70,000/kg ($7.2/kg) in 2012.

Due to the lack of official statistics from the GOI, Post maintains MY 2012/13 Indonesian corn harvested area at 3.12 million hectares. However, given the aforementioned situation, Post estimates MY 2012/13 Indonesia corn production to increase to 9 MMT compared to 8.9 MMT previously reported. Assuming weather will remain normal that will provide incentives and opportunities for farmers to grow more corn and more hybrid corn use, Post forecasts MY 2013/14 corn harvested area and production to further increase to 3.15 million hectares and 9.2 MMT respectively.


Most of Indonesian corn farmers use composite seed varieties due taste preference for composite corn grown for human consumption. Hybrid corn seed grown is mostly earmarked for feed consumption. The Indonesian Feed Millers Association (Gabungan Pengusaha Makan Ternak, GPMT) reported that in calendar year (CY) 2012 feed consumption reached approximately 12.7 MMT higher than the initial estimate of 12.3 MMT. This figure excludes 1.2 MMT used for aquaculture feed. The poultry industry consumes approximately 83 percent of the total feed consumed. Aquaculture consumes 11 percent and the balance of six percent is consumed by cattle and swine. GPMT forecasts that Indonesian feed consumption will further increase to 13.8 MMT in CY 2013. Two major feed mills are expanding their production capacity by building new factories in South Sulawesi, North Sumatera, and Central Java. This industry is estimated to grow by 12- 15 percent in 2013, assuming the economic and political situation remains stable; there are no significant outbreaks of poultry diseases; and the Indonesian rupiah exchanges favorably against the U.S. dollar. The existing feed millers are running at 70 – 80 percent of the total installed capacity.

GPMT reports that corn makes up an average of 50 percent of typical livestock feed, with soybean meal 15-20 percent, corn gluten meal 3 percent, CPO 2 percent, fish meal 5 percent, rice bran 15 percent, wheat pollard 8 percent and premix 0.6 percent. Some factors that inhibit feed millers from sourcing more local products are low protein content, high raw fiber content, high rancidity, limited and inconsistent corn supplies for commercial scale feed millers, and difficulties in storage. Therefore, feed millers report that they are determined to import corn at any price to meet the demand.

With the increasing feed production capacity and higher demands from the meat and poultry sectors, GPMT reports that in MY 2012/13 the feed industry will need to import more corn than in MY2011/12. However, by claiming that in CY 2013 Indonesian will produce 19.8 MMT corn the MOA essentially maintains an unofficial import quota for corn. Only feed millers can import corn, and not traders. In order to be able to import corn, a feed miller must obtain an import recommendation from the MOA. The MOA will grant the volume of corn that can be imported based on the actual feed production of the feed millers.

Considering the above given factors, Post estimated the MY2012/13 corn consumption by feed industry to increase to 6.2 MMT compared to the previous MY 2011/12 of 6 MMT, while a total of 4.5 MMT of corn will go for human consumption. In MY 2013/14 these corn consumptions for feed industry is forecast to increase to 6.6 MMT, while corn consumption for food will decline to 4.4 MMT due to some switching to rice and wheat flour based food products.


Corn contributes about 80 percent of energy in Indonesian feed. Despite higher domestic production, challenges persist due to inconsistent seasonal supplies, high moisture levels, and high aflatoxin levels, which result from poor post harvest management. These factors - combined with higher installed capacity of feed millers - significantly continue to drive demand for imports. Post estimates that in MY 2012/13 Indonesia will import 1.7 MMT, an increase by 200,000 MT over the previous marketing year. Post forecast that Indonesian corn imports in MY 2013/14 will continue to increase to 1.9 MMT due to the aforementioned reasons. According to the Global Trade Atlas, in MY 2011/12, India held the largest market share of 75 percent, followed by Argentina (14 percent), the Brazil (7 percent), and the United States (3 percent).

Due to some price and quality concerns from feed millers dried distiller’s grain soluble (DDGS) Indonesia’s CY 2012 imports of DDGS decreased to 170,000 MMT from 228 MMT in CY 2011. United States continued to be Indonesia’s largest supplier of DDGS with a 90 percent market share, followed by Australia with 10 percent market share. In CY 2012, Indonesia imported approximately 207,000 MT of corn gluten meal (CGM) mainly also from the United States (98 percent). Frequent promotional activities and technical assistance provided by the U.S. Grains Council in conjunction with other U.S. promotional activities contributed to this success.


In March 2013, the price of local corn in Java at farmer level reportedly ranged from Rp. 2,900/kg ($298/MT) to Rp. 3,000/kg ($308/MT) compared to Rp. 2,400/kg ($246/MT) to Rp. 2,600/kg ($267/MT) in February 2013. The increasing prices are due to smaller supplies from farmers since the peak of corn harvest time is over. In line with the increase of corn price GPMT reported its plan to increase the price of compound feed by 20 – 30 percent this year. In February 2013 the price of broiler compound feed stood at Rp. 6,500/kg ($667/MT) while the price of layer compound feed was at Rp. 4,800/kg (S493/MT).

Rice, Milled


MY 2012/13 Indonesian rice production is expected to be higher over MY 2011/12. Favorable weather led to better yields and farmers are increasing their preference for higher yielding seed varieties. These are the main drivers behind the increase.

Decisions to grow secondary crops on irrigated land and to leave upland areas idle during the third cropping cycle has helped to manage challenges associated with pests and disease. More sunshine will increase photosynthesis and provide better opportunities to sundry wet paddy.

Currently, the main Javanese paddy harvest is ongoing in major rice producing areas. Some farmers who have finished harvesting are replanting paddy as a second crop cycle on irrigated land. Farmers in upland areas of Java are growing corn. Post staff recently met farmers in West and Central Java who reported that they were forced to prematurely harvest the paddy as to avoid the low prices which typically follow the first main harvest. The second harvest is expected to occur during June - July 2013.

Post staff recently visited major rice producing areas in West Java and Central Java and learned that more farmers grew paddy during the first cropping cycle due to the abundance of rainfall. Farmers reported fewer problems with brown hopper and rats over the first cropping cycle from the previous marketing year. However, farmers are not growing paddy at the same time in order to try to prevent prices from falling during the main harvest. Farmers in those areas continue to plant more Ciherang seeds over the more traditional IR64.

One of the largest state owned companies producing seed reports that they will produce 64,000 MT of high yielding paddy seed in MY 2012/13 compared to 30,000 MT produced in MY 2011/12. The increased production results from higher demand from farmers.

Due to the lack of official statistics from GOI, Post maintains its estimate of MY 2012/13 harvested area for Indonesian paddy at 12.15 million hectares. However, given the above factors, Post estimates that MY 2012/13 Indonesian rice production will increase to 37.5 MMT of milled rice equivalent compared to 36.5 MMT of milled rice equivalent in MY 2011/12. Assuming continued favorable weather and farmers’ preference to grow more high yielding varieties, Post forecast MY 2013/14 Indonesian paddy harvested area and production to increase to 12.16 million hectares and 37.7 MMT of milled rice equivalent.

A number of external factors threaten Indonesia’s capacity for maintain current levels of rice production. These factors include high rates of land conversion to non-agricultural uses near urban areas on Java, which may result in a stagnant or even declining harvested area. Yields in some areas are declining due to deteriorating soil quality due to improper fertilizer application. Area expansion outside of Java is seriously hindered by a general lack of infrastructure and less fertile soil. The GOI is taking measures to increase or at least maintain Indonesian rice production to meet domestic demand. These actions include:

  • Encourage farmers to grow more high-yielding and more pest and extreme climate resistant paddy seed use such as Inpari and Inpara.
  • Continue efforts to expand area outside of Java with plans to provide grain dryers to provincial food crops offices all over Indonesia.
  • Establish a closer cooperation between Indonesian Meteorology, Geophysics, and Climatology Agency (BMKG) with provincial food crops offices in providing weather information to be disseminated to farmers’ groups.
  • Continue efforts to provide farmers with affordable and timely available fertilizer through fertilizer subsidy program.


In MY 2012/13 BULOG will allocate a total of 2.795 MMT of rice for the Raskin program to 15,530,897 poor families. Each family will receive 15 kg of rice for 12 months at the price of Rp. 1,600/kg. As of the late of March 2013, BULOG has distributed a total of 485,000 kg rice under the Raskin program.

Some rice stocks held by BULOG are being used by BULOG as part of their normal, on-going market operations as to increase supply and lower the price of medium quality rice in the domestic market. During the period of January - March 2013, 49,000 MT of rice was distributed commercially.

In line with the population growth, Post estimated MY 2012/13 Indonesian rice consumption to increase to 40 MMT from 39.55 MMT in previous MY2011/12. The consumption is forecast to increase further to 40.3 MMT in MY 2013/14.


In MY 2012/13 the Indonesian National Logistics Agency (BULOG) set its procurement target at 3.2 MMT of milled rice equivalent. This level is lower than the procurement target set in previous MY 2011/12 of 3.67 MMT due to a decrease in rice the Rice for the Poor Program (Raskin). As of the end of March 2013, BULOG procured a total of 312,000 MT of domestic rice. This figure is also lower compared to the same period during the previous MY 2011/12 of 556,000 MT due to delayed harvest in some Indonesian major producing areas. The period of March through June is the peak period for BULOG to meet its domestic procurement targets.

The GOI has instructed BULOG to maintain a minimum stock of 2 MMT by the end of 2013. As of late March 2013 BULOG held a total of 2,024,000 MMT of milled rice equivalent its storage. BULOG also holds a total of 395,000 MT in strategic reserves. Assuming that BULOG will be able to reach the procurement target from domestic farmers, combined with the rice distribution for Raskin program, BULOG will manage to maintain its prescribed levels of ending stocks. Recent media reports indicate that BULOG is exploring possible opportunities to import rice from Myanmar in the event of a production shortage. In the past the GOI typically imported from Thailand and Vietnam.

Other private sector Indonesian importers also imports rice, although the private sector is only allowed to import specialty rice for specific purposes such for rice diabetics, specialty rice such as jasmine, basmati and sushi rice for the service and hospitality industry, and rice seed. The high price disparity between Indonesia’s domestically produced rice over Vietnamese and Thai 15 percent broken rice will continue to provide incentives for smuggled rice, especially through more porous Indonesian border areas.

Assuming consistent amounts of specialty rice and smuggled rice, Post forecasts that MY 2012/13 Indonesian rice imports to reach 800,000 MT. Indonesia is facing an election year in 2014 when each participating party will put some efforts to have a positive image among the people. One of the many indicators considered as a success is when the ruling regime limits rice imports in favor to protect farmers. However, lower MY 2012/13 ending stocks combined with marginal increase of MY 2013/14 Indonesian rice production may increase prices of rice in the domestic market. Post assumes that there would be slightly higher unauthorized imports in MY 2013/14.

Indonesia is the 4th most populous country in the world with a population of roughly 240 million people. Over 50 percent of the population is between the ages of 5 - 34 years. The emerging middle class broadly supports domestic industry and imported goods. A culture of dining out is becoming more prevalent and a variety of international restaurants can be found in urban areas. This trend is important as it will increase demand and imports of specialty rice. Post forecast MY 2013/14 Indonesian rice imports to increase to 1 MMT due to slightly higher unauthorized imports combined with higher demand for specialty rice.


MY 2012/13 ending stock of Indonesia rice is estimated to decline to 3.385 MMT due to lower imports. Post forecast that ending stocks of MY 2013/14 will further decline to 1.785 MMT due to the same reason. This will be second lowest level of ending stocks within the last two decades.


In MY 2012/13 BULOG targeted to procure 3.2 MMT of rice. BULOG can only buy paddy or rice from farmers when the market price is lower or equal to the GOI’s official purchasing price (Harga Pembelian Pemerintah, HPP). GOI made no changes to the HPP for MY 2012/13 procurement.

Usually June is the most important month when looking at BULOG domestic procurement objectives. Should BULOG miss their June target, the GOI may then consider taking a decisive approach on imports as to maintain BULOG’s stock at their prescribed levels.

In an effort to achieve paddy production target in MY 2012/13 that is set at 72.02 MMT, in November 2012, GOI set the maximum retail price of subsidized fertilizer for small holder farmers possessing no more than 2 hectares of land for 2013 cropping cycles:

Urea : Rp. 1,800/kg
SP-36 : Rp. 2,000/kg
ZA : Rp. 1,400/kg
NPK : Rp. 2,300/kg
Organic fertilizer : Rp. 500/kg


As a consequence of over production and lower quality yields gained from the recent harvest, prices for wet paddy are reportedly declining. Currently, the price of wet paddy at farmer level in West Java sand Central Java ranges from Rp. 3,300/kg ($339/MT) to Rp. 4,000/kg ($411/MT) compared to Rp. 3,500/kg ($359/MT) to Rp. 4,500/kg ($462/MT) in March 2013.

Average daily supplies of rice from major rice producing areas in Java to Cipinang rice wholesale market in Jakarta is increasing to 2,862 MT in March 2013 from 2,752 MT in January 2013. The price of medium quality rice at Cipinang whole sale market is also declining from Rp. 8,445/kg ($867/MT) in January 2013 to the average price of Rp. 8,253/kg ($847/MT) in March 2013.

May 2013

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