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USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed


04 July 2013

USDA GAIN: Pakistan Grain and Feed Update June 2013USDA GAIN: Pakistan Grain and Feed Update June 2013

Government of Pakistan (GOP) procured 5.98 million tons of wheat at the end of 2013 procurement season. MY12/13 consumption figures have been revised upward from 23.4 to 23.9 million tons and ending stocks have been revised downward from 3.4 to 2.9 million tons. MY 2012/13 rice production estimate is revised downward from 6.0 million tons to 5.6 million tons based on field reports that the flood damage in Sindh province was more-severe-than estimated. Pakistan’s MY 2012/13 rice exports estimate is reduced from 3.2 million tons to 3.0 million tons due to continuous energy problems facing rice milling industry.
USDA GAIN Report - Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

Post:

Islamabad

Author Defined:

Wheat

Government Wheat Procurement Falls Short of Target

At the close of 2013 wheat procurement season, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) procured 5.98 million ton of wheat or 75% of the intended target of 7.91 million tons. The breakdown of the procured what by province is shown in Table 1.

The lower-than-expected procurement is mainly attributed to the government’s overly optimistic production estimate of 26 million tons based on satellite imagery forecast of Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO). Additionally, the GOP was anticipating an increase in production in response to its decision to raise the procurement price of wheat from Rs.1050 per 40 kg ($292/ton) to Rs.1200 per 40 Kg ($312/ton). Farmers did not respond accordingly, alleging that the increase in procurement price was insufficient to cover the increase in the cost of inputs. Subsequently, as production reports from the field trickled in, the GOP reduced its MY12/13 wheat production estimate to approximately 24 million tons, in line with FAS Islamabad’s initial forecast.

MY12/13 consumption figures have been revised upward from 23.4 to 23.9 million tons or two percent higher and ending stocks have been revised downward from 3.4 to 2.9 million tons. According to flour millers and trade contacts, Pakistan’s surge in consumption is a result of declining food inflation and its growing population. MY13/14 consumption and stock estimates are also adjusted accordingly.

MY13/14 stocks are adjusted downward from an initial estimate of 3.456 million tons to 2.2 million tons mainly due to the increase in consumption. This situation would lead to tight wheat stocks, the lowest since FY 2003/04, limiting Pakistan’s ability to increase its exports.

According to trade sources, around 100,000 tons of wheat flour has so far been exported to Afghanistan during the current marketing year.

Rice

MY 2012/13 production estimate is revised downward from 6.0 million tons to 5.6 million tons based on field reports that the flood damage in Sindh province was more-severe-than estimated.

MY 2013/14 crop production remains unchanged as the Pakistan Metrological Department has forecast normal monsoon rains for this summer that should commence on the last week of June, enabling for a timely transplantation of Basmati rice. The transplantation of coarse varieties has begun and reports are indicating prevailing optimum planting conditions.

Massive electricity load-shedding and gas shortages continue to affect the entire export chain, reducing the milling capacity, while gas shortages have hindered the drying process. Decline in the basmati production is also adversely affecting exports. Consequently, Pakistan’s MY 2012/13 rice exports estimate is reduced from 3.2 million tons to 3.0 million tons. As the energy crisis is likely to continue, MY 2013/2014 export estimate is also reduced to 3.0 million tons, with record ending stocks of 1.2 million tons.

July 2013

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