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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


18 July 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 18 JulyAustralian Weekly ABARES Report - 18 July


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • Over the past week rain was recorded across most of the southern mainland coast, the north western half of Tasmania, inland New South Wales, much of Victoria and parts of Queensland’s east coast.
  • Grain growers in parts of the Western Australian wheatbelt have welcomed the first significant rainfall event since early May 2013.
  • The current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is predicted to persist through the winter-spring period. A negative IOD can increase the chance of above average rainfall over southern Australia, and over parts of northern Australia it can increase the chance of higher humidity.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have increased by 199 gigalitres this week and are at 73 per cent of total capacity.
  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder increased to US$5058 a tonne on 16 July 2013 compared with US$4757 a tonne on 2 July 2013. The price of skim milk powder increased by around 3 per cent over the same period while the prices of cheese and anhydrous milk fat both increased by around 2 per cent.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$313 a tonne in the week ending 16 July 2013, compared with US$305 in the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$292 a tonne for the week ending 17 July 2013, compared with US$298 a tonne in the previous week.
  • Data from the India Ministry of Agriculture indicates that 9.2 million hectares had been planted to cotton in India as at 12 July 2013, around 42 per cent more than the same period in 2012.
  • The wholesale prices of selected vegetables were generally lower in the week ending 13 July 2013, compared with the previous week. The prices of beans (round stringless), broccoli, cauliflower and tomatoes (field gourmet) fell while the price iceberg lettuce rose.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) increased by around 3 per cent in the week ending 12 July 2013 to average 319 cents a kilogram. Young cattle prices also increased by around 3 per cent in Victoria to 361 cents a kilogram. In New South Wales, the young cattle indicator price fell around 2 per cent to 346 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • Over the past week rain was recorded across most of the southern mainland coast, the north western half of Tasmania, inland New South Wales, much of Victoria and parts of Queensland’s east coast. Falls greater than 100 millimetres were recorded in the south coast district of Western Australia, northern Tasmania, the Victorian alpine region and tropical Queensland coast, while heavy rainfall in coastal Southern Australia produced record July daily totals at a number of stations.
  • Grain growers in parts of the Western Australian wheatbelt have welcomed the first significant rainfall event since early May 2013. Falls of up to 50 millimetres were recorded in the northern and central regions of the wheatbelt.
  • While the recent rainfall is benefiting many growers across the Western Australian wheatbelt, it has reportedly arrived too late for some. In eastern parts of the Western Australian wheatbelt severe rainfall deficiencies over the past 3 months has prevented germination of crops and pastures.
  • The current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is predicted to persist through the winter-spring period. A negative IOD can increase the chance of above average rainfall over southern Australia, and over parts of northern Australia it can increase the chance of higher humidity.
  • Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are persisting in the tropical Pacific, with most climate models suggesting that neutral conditions will continue at least into spring. The cooling trend observed during June in the eastern Pacific has reversed in the past fortnight, bringing temperatures closer to average than they were in early July (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 16 July 2013.

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 16 July 2013, rainfall was mainly recorded across most of the southern coast, the northwestern half of Tasmania, inland New South Wales, and parts of Queensland’s east coast. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 161.6 millimetres at Witchcliffe in southwest Western Australia.

For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 16 July 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Issued: 16/07/2013

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$313 a tonne in the week ending 16 July 2013, compared with US$305 in the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$292 a tonne for the week ending 17 July 2013, compared with US$298 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$504 a tonne in the week ending 16 July 2013, compared with US$542 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 92.6 cents a pound in the week ending 17 July 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US16.1 cents a pound in the week ending 17 July 2013, around 1 per cent lower than in the previous week.
  • Data from the India Ministry of Agriculture indicates that 9.2 million hectares had been planted to cotton in India as at 12 July 2013 was, around 42 per cent more than the same period in 2012.
  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder increased to US$5058 a tonne on 16 July 2013 compared with US$4757 a tonne on 2 July 2013. The price of skim milk powder increased by around 3 per cent over the same period while the prices of cheese and anhydrous milk fat both increased by around 2 per cent.
  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $621 a tonne in the week ending 15 July 2013, compared with $620 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The wholesale prices of selected fruits were generally higher in the week ending 13 July 2013, compared with the previous week. The prices of banana (cavendish), blueberry, pineapple (smoothleaf) and watermelon (seedless) increased while the prices of avocado (hass) and strawberry fell.
  • The wholesale prices of selected vegetables were generally lower in the week ending 13 July 2013, compared with the previous week. The prices of beans (round stringless), broccoli, cauliflower and tomatoes (field gourmet) fell while the price iceberg lettuce rose.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) increased by around 3 per cent in the week ending 12 July 2013 to average 319 cents a kilogram. Young cattle prices also increased by around 3 per cent in Victoria to 361 cents a kilogram. In New South Wales, the young cattle indicator price fell around 2 per cent to 346 cents a kilogram.
  • Changes to the saleyard prices of lamb were mixed in the week ending 12 July 2013. The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 2 per cent in Victoria and 1 per cent in South Australia to average 501 cents a kilogram and 488 cents a kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price fell by 13 per cent in Western Australia and 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 361 cents a kilogram and 472 cents a kilogram, respectively.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool averaged 1007 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 11 July 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered at sale increased by 52 per cent compared with the previous week.

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