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USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

05 November 2013

USDA GAIN: Brazil Oilseeds and Products UpdateUSDA GAIN: Brazil Oilseeds and Products Update

The 2013/14 soybean production forecast is maintained at 88 million metric tons (mmt), as planting continues at a steady pace, slightly faster than last year. Soybean exports are forecast at 45 mmt. Export volume is forecast up, but export value is expected to decrease based on commodity prices.
USDA GAIN Report - Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed





2013/14 Soybean Production Forecast Maintained; Planting Continues at a Pace Slightly Faster Than Last Year

Post maintains production at 88 million metric tons (mmt). The soybean planting has gotten off to a relatively normal, if not slightly delayed start as farmers awaited the first rains of the season. After the initial precipitation, the rain in the Center-West and the South has been more sparse and irregular this year than average. A break in precipitation has enabled planting to proceed more quickly this year than last year. Analysts are reporting that 25 percent of Brazil’s soybeans have been planted by the end of October. Reports out of Cuiabá indicate that 55 percent of the soybeans of Mato Grosso state have been planted by the end of October.

Helicoverpa Threat Expands, as Farmers Scramble for Ideal Management Practices

Already some of the early-maturing soybeans in Mato Grosso are reporting the presence of the pesky Helicoverpa caterpillars, which typically attack the plants from emergence onwards. Agronomists are unable to classify the Helicoverpa species as either zea or armigera, as this differentiation is only possible via lab tests. Farmers and agrichemical companies alike, however, are closely monitoring the crop development and pest prevalence to tailor the proper pesticide management practices. No one seems to have concocted ideal pest management practices, which will most likely evolve throughout the season. While the 2012/13 impact of Helicoverpa was experienced in western Bahia, this year multiple other states—notably Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul—are preparing to manage the pest.

Forward sales continue to be relatively slow for 2013/14 soybeans. Prices have remained stable. Farmers are focusing on planting and less on selling off the remainders of their last soybean crop. Of those who do sell, many are selling their soybeans on the domestic market, as domestic stocks are currently low and are commanding prices equivalent to FOB.


2013/14 exports are forecast at 45 mmt, a six percent increase in volume. Export values will be subject to commodity prices. The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Association (ABIOVE) has provided estimates and forecast on soybean and soybean derivate exports. ABIOVE has noted that the 2013/2014 soybean and soybean derivatives export values are forecast to be seven percent lower than 2013 estimates, due not to lower volume but to projected lower commodity prices.

November 2013

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