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USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

21 November 2013

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook -November 2013USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook -November 2013

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Global sugar production for 2013/14 is estimated at 175 million (metric) tons, down over 1 million from last year as sharply lower production in India and Russia is somewhat offset by growth in China and Thailand. With abundant supplies continuing to weigh on the market, low prices are expected to stimulate global consumption and trade.

2013/14 Sugar Overview

Production in the United States is estimated at 8.1 million tons, down 90,000 from the previous year, on smaller sugar beet area and lower yields. Consumption which exceeds production continues to rise, while imports of nearly 3.1 million tons are estimated up over 130,000 tons. Stocks continue to expand at nearly 2.2 million tons, although any Commodity Credit Corporations disposals would lower them.

Brazil’s production is estimated level at 38.8 million tons, as the share of the sugarcane crop for sugar is estimated at 47 percent, as opposed to the 50/50 split between sugar and ethanol the prior year. Consumption holds steady; exports are estimated at 27.3 million tons. A fire in the largest sugar export terminal at the Port of Santos caused extensive damage in October and will further complicate Brazil’s already complex logistics. Although repairs are estimated to take a year or more to complete, traders believe that the remaining export terminals will likely absorb the lost capacity. With the 2013/14 sugarcane harvest nearing conclusion, mills will crush as much as possible before seasonal rainy weather halts activity.

Thailand’s production is estimated up 900,000 tons, to a record 10.9 million, based on a rise in area and yield. Consumption continues to trend higher, driven by growing household and industrial use. Exports are estimated to jump to a record 8.7 million tons on growing Asian demand, particularly from Indonesia and Cambodia.

India’s production is estimated to drop by 1.8 million tons, to 25.5 million, due to drought related sugarcane shortfall even as consumption continues to trend higher. Exports are expected to reach 2.0 million tons because of large sugar inventory and demand in African markets.

EU production is estimated at 16.0 million tons, down almost 600,000, on lower sugar beet plantings and a decline in yields. Consumption is nearly unchanged, lower imports are estimated at 3.7 million tons, while exports, limited by the EU’s WTO sugar export ceiling, remain at 1.5 million tons.

China’s production is estimated at 14.8 million tons, up 800,000 on higher yields. Consumption, which outpaces production, continues to expand yet stocks continue to build.

Mexico’s production is estimated at 6.9 million tons, down 500,000 on lower yields. With greater consumption and exports, stocks are expected to fall. The United States is by far the largest market but Mexico is also expected to continue to export more to non- U.S. markets.

Russia’s production is estimated to decline 600,000 tons, to 4.4 million due to a sharp drop in planted area as low world prices and high global stocks have reduced incentives to invest in the sector. To meet domestic demand, imports are estimated to nearly double to 1.1 million tons.

Revised 2013/14 From May Forecast -

Global ending stocks are revised 5.2 million tons higher to 43.4 million.

o China is raised 2.9 million tons to 8.3 million with favorably priced imports and larger beginning stocks.

o Thailand jumps 1.5 million tons to 2.8 million on lower than expected consumption and a drop in 2012/13 exports.

o European Union climbs 785,000 tons to 3.9 million. -

Global production is virtually unchanged as it declines 27,000 tons to 174.8 million.

o Brazil is lowered 1.7 million tons to 38.8 million as more sugar cane is used for ethanol.

o Argentina is reduced 550,000 tons to 1.8 million as a result of drought and frost.

o Russia drops 500,000 tons to 4.4 million on reduced area.

o China is up 750,000 tons to 14.8 million on increased area and yields.

o Mexico increases 650,000 tons to 6.9 million on higher yields.

- Global exports are lowered 513,000 tons to 58.7 million.

o Brazil is revised down 2.1 million tons to 27.3 million on lower available exportable supplies.

o India is up 1.4 million tons to 2.0 million on high African demand and exportable supplies.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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