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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


10 April 2014

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 10 April 2014Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 10 April 2014


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres fell in a broad north-west to south-east band across the continent during the past week.

  • Long-term rainfall deficiencies have eased slightly across Queensland and New South Wales, but have intensified in parts of South Australia and Western Australia.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have decreased by 24 gigalitres this week and are at 52 per cent of total capacity.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$332 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2014, compared with US$345 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) declined by around 1 per cent in the week ending 9 April 2014 to $341 a tonne.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by around 5 per cent in the week ending 4 April 2014 to 334 cents a kilogram. Young cattle prices rose by around 4 per cent in New South Wales to 391 cents a kilogram and by around 3 per cent in Victoria at 365 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes to the saleyard prices of lamb were mixed in the week ending 4 April 2014. The indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 6 per cent in South Australia to average 516 cents a kilogram. By contrast, the indicator price fell by around 4 per cent in Western Australia and by around 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 463 cents a kilogram and 554 cents a kilogram, respectively. In Victoria, the indicator price remained largely unchanged at 536 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres fell in a broad north-west to south-east band across the continent during the past week. Many areas in central Australia recorded their highest weekly rainfall total for at least two years, with some areas recording up to 125 millimetres. While many pastoral districts throughout central Australia have recorded significant falls, much of eastern Northern Territory and the northeast of South Australia recorded little to no rainfall this week.

  • Much of eastern, northern and central Australia has recorded above average day-time and night-time temperatures during the past week. These higher than average temperatures combined with recent rainfall are likely to provide continued beneficial growing conditions for pastures in the lead up to winter.

  • Recent rainfall across southern cropping areas in eastern Australia is likely to allow winter crop seeding activities to occur. Increased soil moisture levels combined with recent above average temperatures are also likely to benefit the establishment and growth of early sown crops.

  • The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates falls in excess 15 millimetres are likely across much of southern New South Wales, northern and eastern Victoria and parts of southern South Australia. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres are forecast for coastal and adjacent inland regions of Queensland.

  • Long-term rainfall deficiencies (18 months) have eased slightly across Queensland and New South Wales when compared to the previous 17 month analysis reported by the Bureau of Meteorology. Longer-term deficiencies (24 months) have also eased across Queensland and New South Wales, but have intensified in parts of South Australia and Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 4 April 2014).

  • The Bureau of Meteorology has reported that the likelihood of an El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere winter is now estimated to be greater than 70 per cent. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks. Most climate models surveyed predict that sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season. El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below-average rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 8 April 2014).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 9 April 2014, rainfall between 15 and 125 millimetres was recorded in a broad north-west to south-east band across the continent. Isolated storms were also recorded in coastal districts and in central Western Australia. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week across Australia was 135 millimetres at Yarras (Mount Seaview), near Port Macquarie in New South Wales. For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 9 April 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology              Issued: 09/04/2014

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$332 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2014, compared with US$345 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$223 a tonne for the week ending 9 April 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$585 a tonne in the week ending 8 April 2014, compared with US$580 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US94.9 cents a pound in the week ending 9 April 2014, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US17.1 cents a pound in the week ending 9 April 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • Data from the Agriculture Ministry of Mexico indicates that as at 5 April 2014 the country’s cumulative sugar production for the 2013–14 season (October-September) was 4.2 million tonnes, compared with 4.9 million tonnes over the same period a year ago.

  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool fell by around 1 per cent in the week ending 3 April 2014 to average of 993 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 8 per cent lower than the previous sale.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) declined by around 1 per cent in the week ending 9 April 2014 to $341 a tonne.

  • The Australian barley indicator price (Sydney) increased by around 2 per cent in the week ending 9 April 2014 at $321 a tonne.

  • The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) fell by around 2 per cent in the week ending 9 April 2014 to $327 a tonne.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) fell by around 5 per cent in the week ending 7 April 2014 to $512 a tonne.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by around 5 per cent in the week ending 4 April 2014 to 334 cents a kilogram. Young cattle prices rose by around 4 per cent in New South Wales to 391 cents a kilogram and by around 3 per cent in Victoria at 365 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes to the saleyard prices of lamb were mixed in the week ending 4 April 2014. The indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 6 per cent in South Australia to average 516 cents a kilogram. By contrast, the indicator price fell by around 4 per cent in Western Australia and by around 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 463 cents a kilogram and 554 cents a kilogram, respectively. In Victoria, the indicator price remained largely unchanged at 536 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruits were mixed in the week ending 5 April 2014. The wholesale prices of pineapple (smoothleaf), banana (cavendish) and watermelon (seedless) were higher than the previous week while the prices of blueberry, avocado (hass) and strawberry were lower.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 5 April 2014. The Wholesale prices of tomato (field gourmet) and bean (round, stringless) were higher than the previous week while cauliflower, broccoli and lettuce (iceberg) were lower.

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