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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


14 August 2014

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 14 August 2014Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 14 August 2014


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • During the past week much of Australia recorded little to no rainfall. Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was restricted to western Tasmania, the far south of Victoria, the central coast of New South Wales, and the north Queensland tropical coast.

  • Parts of Western Australia have recorded day-time temperatures over 30 degrees Celsius this week, with some regions recording day-time temperatures 10 degrees above average for this time of year. The combination of soil moisture deficiencies and high temperature has done little to support winter crop prospect across northern and eastern parts of the wheatbelt.

  • The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development. Some warming has occurred in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during the last two weeks, due to a weakening of the trade winds.

  • The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that falls in excess 25 millimetres are likely for much of eastern Australia. The highest falls, of up to 200 millimetres, are likely to occur along the eastern coastline and across inland regions of New South Wales and southern Queensland.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased by 167 gigalitres (GL) this week and are at 66 per cent of total capacity.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$290 a tonne in the week ending 12 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $321 a tonne in the week ending 13 August 2014, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 347 cents a kilogram in the week ending 8 August 2014, around 3 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by around 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 360 cents a kilogram and rose by around 4 per cent in Victoria to average 375 cents a kilogram.

  • The saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell in most states in the week ending 8 August 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price fell by around 9 per cent in both Victoria and Western Australia to average 454 cents a kilogram and 544 cents a kilogram, respectively. In South Australia, the indicator price fell by around 1 per cent to average 500 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price rose by around 6 per cent in New South Wales to average 498 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • For the week ending 13 August 2014, much of Australia recorded little to no rainfall. Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was restricted to western Tasmania, the far south of Victoria, the central coast of New South Wales, and the north Queensland tropical coast.

  • During the first two weeks of August 2014 much of southern eastern Australia has experienced a series of very cold overnight temperatures and severe frosts, with some areas recording daily overnight temperatures in excess of 12 degrees below average for this time of year.

  • While much of south eastern Australia has record a cold start to August, parts of Western Australia have recorded day-time temperatures over 30 degrees Celsius for the week ending 13 August 2014. Temperature records for August have been broken with some regions recording day-time temperatures as high as 33 degrees Celsius, 10 degrees above average for this time of year. These well above average temperatures have done little to support winter crop prospect across northern and eastern parts of the wheatbelt.

  • The latest ENSO ‘Wrap-up’ released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicated that the Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development. Some warming has occurred in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, due to a weakening of the trade winds. If the trade winds remain weak, more warming towards El Niño thresholds is possible (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 12 August 2014).

  • The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that falls in excess 25 millimetres are likely for much of eastern Australia, with much of Victoria and Tasmania being the notable exceptions, where fall of below 5 millimetres are more likely. The highest falls, up to 200 millimetres, are likely to occur along the eastern coastline and across inland regions of New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 13 August 2014, rainfall was recorded in Tasmania, southern Victoria, southern South Australia, parts of coastal New South Wales and Queensland, the southwest of Western Australia and isolated areas of inland Queensland and the Northern Territory. The highest recorded rainfall total was 127 millimetres at Tree House Creek, between Innisfail and Cairns in north Queensland.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 13 August 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology                  Issued: 13/08/2014

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$290 a tonne in the week ending 12 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$175 a tonne for the week ending 13 August 2014, compared with US$178 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$431 a tonne in the week ending 12 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US73.5 cents a pound in the week ending 13 August 2014, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US16.1 cents a pound in the week ending 13 August 2014, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • Data from India’s Directorate of Cotton Development indicates that as at 31 July 2014, India had planted around 10.5 million hectares of cotton. This compares with 10.9 million hectares planted by the same time last year.

  • Data from India’s Meteorological Department indicates that between 1 June 2014 and 13 August 2014, India’s cumulative rainfall was 463.3 millimetres for the 2014 monsoon season (June to September). This compares with the long term average (1951-2000) over the same period of 562.3 millimetres.

  • After a three week recess, the Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool average 1031 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 7 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous sale on 10 July 2014. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 13 per cent higher than the previous sale.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $321 a tonne in the week ending 13 August 2014, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $288 a tonne in the week ending 13 August 2014, around 4 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $282 a tonne in the week ending 13 August 2014, around 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $467 a tonne in the week ending 11 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 347 cents a kilogram in the week ending 8 August 2014, around 3 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by around 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 360 cents a kilogram and rose by around 4 per cent in Victoria to average 361 cents a kilogram.

  • The saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell in most states in the week ending 8 August 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price fell by around 9 per cent in both Victoria and Western Australia to average 454 cents a kilogram and 544 cents a kilogram, respectively. In South Australia, the indicator price fell by around 1 per cent to average 500 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price rose by around 6 per cent in New South Wales to average 498 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 9 August 2014. The wholesale prices of avocado (hass) and banana (cavendish) were higher than the previous week while the prices of and pineapple (smoothleaf), watermelon (seedless) and strawberry were lower.

  • The wholesale prices of selected vegetables generally rose in the week ending 9 August 2014, compared with the previous week.

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