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USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade

11 March 2015

USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade - March 2015USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade - March 2015

USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade Reports

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) first 2015/16 world cotton projection was released at the World Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 22. Global consumption will exceed production, leading to a reduction in global stocks for the first time in six years, although stocks will remain near historic highs. Responding to continuing low prices, world consumption is projected to exceed production by 3 million bales, drawing world stocks down to about 107 million bales, the equivalent of 92 percent of projected global consumption. With most of the world’s stock drawdown occurring in China, ending stocks in other countries are reduced only slightly. The A-Index is expected to remain near its current level.

U.S. cotton production is pegged at 14.0 million bales for 2015/16 as producers are expected to reduce planted area by about 12 percent. Domestic mill use is projected marginally above the 2014/15 level and exports are projected marginally lower, leaving ending stocks nearly unchanged.

Outside of China and the United States, production is expected to decline while mill use is forecast to increase. Both trends are largely influenced by low cotton prices. On May 12, USDA will release its first global, country-by-country production, supply, and demand forecasts.

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