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USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

17 March 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - March 2015USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - March 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Increased U.S. Domestic Production and Fewer Exports Lead to Adjusted Imports from Mexico in FY2015

U.S. total sugar supplies for 2014/15 are lowered 41,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) in March, totaling 13.868 million STRV, as an increase in production was eclipsed by lower estimates for imports. Higher expected sugarcane yields in Florida led to a 35,000 STRV increase in U.S. domestic production, which is currently estimated at 8.645 million STRV. Deliveries to domestic users in 2014/15 remain unchanged at 11.994 million STRV, as deliveries from beet and cane refineries remain ahead of last year’s pace and direct consumption imports show signs of improvement after a slow first quarter.

Exports are lowered 25,000 STRV to 225,000 based on a slower pace thus far in the year. Total imports are lowered 76,000 STRV to 3.428 million STRV. Imports from quota holders and other import programs remained unchanged.

Imports from Mexico are lowered 76,000 STRV, accounting for the entire decline in imports, in line with the terms of the Agreement Suspending the Countervailing Duty Investigations on Sugar from Mexico that was signed December 2014. The changes in production and exports on the U.S. balance table resulted in a recalculation of U.S. Needs that determines the Export Limit applied to Mexico under the agreement. Ending stocks for 2014/15 are expected to be 1.650 million STRV, resulting in a 13.5-percent stocks-to-use ratio, which is also in line with the suspension agreement’s terms.

For Mexico in 2014/15, total supplies are lowered 18,000 metric tons, actual value (MT) due solely to fewer expected imports for Mexico’s product export program (IMMEX)—the result of lower export projections for the United States.

Beginning stocks remain unchanged at 831,000 MT, as did the projection for Mexican sugar production, at 6.151 million MT. Domestic deliveries for 2014/15 were unchanged from the previous month at 4.524 million MT—4.200 million MT for consumption and 324,000 MT for IMMEX.

Total Mexican exports were lowered 65,000 MT to 1.631 million MT. This was entirely captured by lower exports to the United States, which are lowered to 1.306 million MT, again due to the terms of the suspension agreement. Mexican ending stocks for 2014/15 are increased 47,000 MT to 1.001 million MT, resulting in a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 23.8 percent.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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