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USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook


17 June 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - 17 June 2015USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - 17 June 2015


USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Improved Production Prospects for 2015/16 Reduce the Demand for Imports

The USDA increased projections of 2014/15 sugar production by 33,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 8.560 million based on the improved outlook for early beet harvest for the 2015/16 crop. Projected imports are increased 58,000 STRV based on a reallocation of the raw sugar TRQ by the U.S. Trade Representative, reducing expected shortfall. Total use for 2014/15 is reduced 109,000 STRV based on pace-to-date food deliveries reported through April—particularly due to lower direct consumption imports since the beginning of the fiscal year. The projected stocks-to-use ratio is currently 15.0 percent, up from 13.2 percent the previous month. The improved outlook for the 2015/16 sugarbeet crop also resulted in a 270,000 STRV increase in projected 2015/16 sugar production. Projected food deliveries for 2015/16 are reduced 110,000 STRV to reflect the reduction in the current year’s outlook. Projected imports from Mexico in 2015/16 are reduced by 595,000 STRV, as the reductions in other supplies and total use reduces the calculation of U.S. Needs, as defined in the agreement to suspend the countervailing duty investigation signed between the U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC) and the Government of Mexico in December 2014. Projected stocks-to-use for 2015/16 remain unchanged at 12.6 percent.

Estimated Mexican sugar production in 2014/15 is reduced by 60,000 metric tons, actual value (MT) to 5.940 million MT in June based on the production reports as the harvest season nears its conclusion. There are no changes to projected domestic deliveries or exports for 2014/15 relative to the previous month. Production for 2015/16 is projected at 6.000 million MT, unchanged from the previous month. Exports to the United States are reduced by 509,000 MT due to changes in the U.S. 2015/16 balance sheet. Domestic deliveries for human consumption are increased 58,000 MT to 4.308 million MT, although high fructose corn-syrup (HFCS) consumption was decreased by the same amount to 1.420 million MT, keeping total sweetener consumption unchanged from the previous month’s projection. An increase in ending stocks raises the stocks-to-consumption ratio from 15.7 in the May report to 24.6 percent in June

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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