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USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

19 August 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - 17 August 2015USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - 17 August 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Increased U.S. Production and Imports Lead to Higher Supplies and Ending Stocks for 2014/15 and 2015/16

The USDA increased estimated 2014/15 beet sugar production by 45,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 4.825 million STRV based on increased production from the 2015 sugarbeet crop and a higher amount of that crop being harvested early. Cane sugar production was increased by 9,000 STRV to 3.789 million STRV, with an increase in Texas production offsetting a decrease in Hawaii. Estimated 2014/15 imports were increased 38,000 STRV to 3.482 million STRV due to a combination of increases for imports under quota programs, the re-export program, and high-tier tariff imports. Estimates for 2014/15 use remain unchanged from the previous month, with use totaling 12.085 million STRV and deliveries for food and beverage use remaining at 11.750 million STRV. Ending stocks for 2014/15 are estimated at 1.821 million STRV, up 91,000 STRV from the previous month. The estimated stocks-to-use ratio is raised from 14.3 to 15.1 percent.

Projected U.S. sugar production for 2015/16 is 8.800 million STRV, an increase of 35,000 STRV from the previous month due to higher expected production of cane sugar from Florida. Total imports were increased slightly to 3.369 million STRV based on 5,000 STRV of additional sugar from high-tier tariff imports. Domestic food and beverage deliveries remain unchanged at 11.875 million STRV, and total use remains at 12.210 million STRV. Projected ending stocks are 1.780 million STRV, with the stocks-to-use ratio increasing from 13.5 percent to 14.6 percent.

Estimated Mexican sugar supplies for 2014/15 remain essentially unchanged from the previous month at 6.972 million metric tons, actual weight (MT). Production for 2014/15 is estimated at 5.985 million MT, adjusted fractionally to represent latest Mexican production reports. Mexican deliveries for human consumption for 2014/15 are increased 191,000 MT to 4.441 million MT due to continued strong monthly consumption figures reported by the Comité Nacional Para Desarrollo de la Caña de Azúcar (Conadesuca). Exports remain unchanged at 1.370 million MT. Ending stocks for 2014/15 are 191,000 MT lower than the previous month’s estimate at 837,000 MT. Total supplies for 2015/16 are lowered 191,000 MT based on fewer beginning stocks. Projected 2015/16 production and imports remain unchanged from the previous month. Domestic consumption for 2015/16 is projected at 4.501 million MT, a 192,000 MT increase from the previous month to reflect changes to 2014/15 consumption. Projected exports remain unchanged at 1.335 million MT. Ending stocks are reduced 383,000 MT to 833,000 MT due to the lower supplies and increased consumption. The stocks-to-consumption ratio for 2015/16 is projected at 18.5 percent, down from 28.2 percent the previous month.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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