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USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

25 September 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - September 2015USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - September 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Record Sugarbeet Yield Projected, Reduction in Cane Sugar Production for 2015/16 Results in Net Reduction for U.S. Sugar Production

Total U.S. sugar domestic deliveries for 2014/15 increased by 119,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) in the USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The increase is primarily due to a 125,000 STRV increase in estimated domestic deliveries for food and beverage use to 11.875 million STRV; the result of volumes of direct consumption imports (DCI) reported in the Farm Service Agency’s (FSA) Sweetener Market Data (SMD) over the past several months. U.S. sugar production for 2014/15 is reduced 25,000 STRV based on adjustments to cane sugar production in Louisiana and Hawaii. Estimated imports for 2014/15 are increased 19,000 STRV. Imports under quota programs are reduced 31,000 STRV, stemming from later than expected shipments under free trade agreements (FTA) that allocate quotas on a calendar-year basis, shifting those volumes into the 2015/16 fiscal year. Imports from Mexico are increased 25,000 STRV, as recent trade data indicate that Mexico will ship a higher proportion than previously expected of the Export Limit that was established in March by the U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC) (as defined by the agreement to suspend the countervailing duties (CVD) investigation signed by the USDOC and the Government of Mexico in December 2014).

The USDA lowered U.S. sugar production for 2015/16 to 8.734 STRV. Updated sugarcane production forecasts from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) result in a 120,000 STRV net decline in cane sugar production to 3.700 million STRV, as yield increases in Florida are eclipsed by a reduction in forecast harvested area and yield in Louisiana. NASS also increased its 2015/16 production forecasts for sugarbeets in September, primarily due to a forecast record yield. As a result, the USDA increased beet sugar production by 54,000 STRV for 2015/16. U.S. sugar imports are increased by 25,000 STRV from the previous month. Imports from Mexico are reduced 8,000 STRV to account for changes in the calculated U.S. Needs from the September WASDE as defined in the agreement to suspend the CVD investigation. Total use for 2015/16 is unchanged from the previous month’s projection. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2015/16 is projected to be 13.5 percent, down from the previous month’s projection of 14.6 percent.

Mexico’s ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 37,000 metric tons, actual value (MT), lowering the stocks-to-consumption ratio to 18.0 percent. Imports in Mexico are lowered 15,000 MT to account for a reduction in estimated U.S. sugar exports. Mexican exports are increased 21,000 MT, all of which is expected to be shipped to the United States. Mexican exports in 2015/16 are reduced 7,000 MT to account for adjustments to the U.S. Needs calculation based on the September WASDE.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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