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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


27 September 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 27 September 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 27 September 2012

Little to no rainfall and above average daytime temperatures were recorded across large parts of Australia during the past week. These warm and dry conditions are likely to have eroded winter crop yield potentials in affected areas.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Regular frontal systems have brought intermittent bands of rainfall to southern Australia over the past week. This rainfall is likely to have sustained prospects for winter crops across much of southern Australia.

Deteriorating growing conditions in parts of northern New South Wales has reportedly prompted some producers to graze off late planted moisture stressed crops.

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have cooled slightly over the past fortnight, easing to neutral values. Despite the shift towards neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean, other indicators continue to favour below average spring rainfall across much of Australia.

There have been no changes to water allocations in the Murray Darling Basin in the past week.

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$383 a tonne in the week ending 25 September 2012, compared with US$377 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$318 a tonne for the week ending 26 Sep 2012, compared with US$323 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$649 a tonne in the week ending 25 September 2012, compared with US$666 a tonne in the previous week.

Saleyard lamb prices declined in all states over the 12 weeks to 21 September 2012 compared with the same period last year. The lamb price indicator (18-22kg fat score 2-4) declined in Western Australia (30 per cent), New South Wales (17 per cent), Victoria (17 per cent) and South Australia (14 per cent). Over this period, total lamb saleyard throughput was 2 per cent lower.

Saleyard sheep prices declined in all states over the 12 weeks to 21 September 2012 compared with the same period last year. The largest decline in the sheep indicator price occurred in Western Australia (41 per cent) followed by New South Wales (36 per cent), South Australia (35 per cent) and Victoria (34 per cent).

Over this period, total sheep saleyard throughput increased by 12 percent with throughput in Victoria rising by 41 per cent, Western Australia rising by 10 per cent and New South Wales 10 per cent.

Commodities

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$383 a tonne in the week ending 25 September 2012, compared with US$377 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$318 a tonne for the week ending 26 Sep 2012, compared with US$323 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$649 a tonne in the week ending 25 September 2012, compared with US$666 a tonne in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged 83.1 US cents a pound in the week ending 26 September 2012, 1.2 per cent lower than in the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged 19.5 US cents a pound in the week ending 26 September 2012, largely unchanged from previous week.

Climate

Daytime temperatures were up to 10 degrees above normal throughout central Australia this week, and up to four degrees higher than normal towards the south. With little rainfall recorded across most of Australia, the above normal temperatures and dry conditions are likely to have placed further stress on wheat and canola crops in some regions.

There are reports that regions in northern and north-west New South Wales have suffered deteriorating growing conditions due to a lack of regular rainfall. While early planted crops are holding on, late planted crops are reportedly struggling and will require additional moisture. As yield potentials fall below profitable levels in some late planted crops, producers have begun grazing failing crops with livestock.

Frontal systems continue to bring intermittent bands of rainfall across southern Australia, typically with reduced rainfall intensity to the north. This rainfall is likely to have sustained yield prospects for winter crops in southern growing regions, while yield potentials are likely to have reduced in some northern regions.

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have cooled slightly over the past fortnight, easing to neutral values. The Southern Oscillation Index and tropical cloud patterns remain within neutral values. Despite the shift towards neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the influence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole continue to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 25 September 2012).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 26 September 2012, there was little rainfall recorded across most of the Australia. Thunderstorm activity brought rain to eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland, and a series of cold fronts produced rainfalls in south-west Western Australia and Tasmania. The highest total recorded rainfall for the week was 115 mm at Wokalup, near Bunbury in Western Australia. For further information, click here.

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